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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior. The description adds extensive behavioral details: fan-out based on classification, response shape (market, analysis, evidence), resolver contract with confidence levels, parent event extraction, news fallback handling, safety short-circuits for low confidence/closed markets, illiquid spread tradeability notes, and cancellation rule parsing. All these go well beyond the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with labeled sections (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, etc.) and front-loaded with the core purpose. Every section serves a purpose given the tool's complexity. While not minimal, it earns its length by providing necessary detail. A slightly tighter rewrite could improve conciseness, but it remains effective.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (3 params, no output schema), the description is remarkably complete. It covers input handling, classification, fan-out logic, response structure, resolver confidence, parent event extraction, news fallback, safety mechanisms, and cancellation rule parsing. No significant gaps are apparent, making it sufficient for an agent to understand and use the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although all parameters have schema descriptions (100% coverage), the tool description adds substantial value: it explains the exact input formats for 'market' (slug, URL, question text) with examples; for 'depth' it clarifies 'quick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough'; for 'include_raw' it details the size impact (20KB summary vs 50-500KB full payloads). This enriches the agent's understanding significantly.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies input types (slug, URL, question text) and output (evidence packet + market-vs-model comparison). The verb 'research' combined with 'bet' gives specific scope, distinguishing it from siblings like 'ask_pipeworx' or 'polymarket_edges'.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit use cases: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It also includes strong guidance like 'ALWAYS inspect [market_match_confidence] before trusting the analysis block' and 'Check [cancellation rule] before sizing.' However, it does not mention alternatives among sibling tools, which would have made it a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are nearly identical: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly the same, and ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all serve overlapping research/query purposes. discover_tools and suggest_questions both act as discovery entry points, while the five polymarket tools differentiate primarily through intricate details that are easy to confuse.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are mixed across the set: verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, resolve_entity, validate_claim), noun_verb (sheets_append, sheets_create), noun_noun (polymarket_arbitrage, entity_profile), and bare verbs (forget, recall, subscribe). The sheets tools are internally consistent but the broader collection has no uniform pattern, with awkward names like pipeworx_trending and search_within.

Tool Count2/5

With 36 tools, the server exceeds the 25-tool threshold for 'too many'. The Google Sheets portion accounts for only 5 tools, while the majority are highly specialized Pipeworx and Polymarket tools that could be consolidated or dramatically reduced. The count feels inflated relative to the advertised 'Google_sheets' server name and its actual core purpose.

Completeness2/5

For a server named Google_sheets, the essential operations exist (create, read, write, append, list structure), but there is no delete/clear range tool and no way to add a new sheet to an existing spreadsheet. For the broader data/research scope, important lifecycles are missing (e.g., no direct way to write Pipeworx results into Sheets, no update for subscriptions, only cancel). The set falls short of fully covering either domain.