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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly/openWorld/idempotent, but the description adds significant behavioral detail: fill-check logic with realizable edge ≤ 0, Jaccard similarity threshold, placeholder filtering rules, and the null-signal behavior for partitions with >20% placeholders. These go well beyond structured fields.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Although lengthy, the description is front-loaded with the core purpose and structured with clear labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence adds unique information and the examples are relevant, making it dense but not wasteful.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and lack of output schema, the description thoroughly covers all three modes, response shapes (opportunities[], partition_check{}), edge cases (placeholder filters, low similarity), and the fill-check pipeline. It is self-sufficient for correct invocation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description enriches both `event` and `topic` with behavioral outcomes, examples, and internal thresholds like Jaccard ≥ 0.30, 3pp deviation, and 20% placeholder exception. This provides substantial meaning beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the tool as an arbitrage finder on Polymarket using monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes from siblings by detailing three specific modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and explicitly referencing polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance: no args for trending scan, `event` for a specific market, `topic` for cross-event scanning. Includes concrete examples for each mode and names polymarket_fill_risk as the alternative for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes, notably ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded which are near-identical in function. The polymarket_* family also has several members with closely related scopes, and the large number of data-query tools makes it hard to choose the right one without careful reading.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case, but the pattern is inconsistent: some are verb-first (list_subscriptions, validate_claim), others are noun-first (entity_profile, bet_research), and proper-noun prefixes like pipeworx_ and polymarket_ are used liberally. The gitlab_* tools follow a clear verb_noun pattern, but the rest of the set is mixed.

Tool Count2/5

With 36 tools, the server is overloaded, especially given that only 5 are GitLab-related while the rest are a sprawling data-access toolkit. Many tools could be consolidated (e.g., the ask_pipeworx variants), and the count exceeds what is reasonable for a focused GitLab server.

Completeness2/5

For a server named Gitlab, the coverage is severely incomplete: only list/get operations exist for projects, issues, and MRs, with no create, update, or delete capabilities. The broader data tools are more complete, but the nominal purpose of the server is clearly not fulfilled.

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