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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive behavior; description adds critical behavioral details such as partition checks, semantic anchor, fill check logic, and response structure, without contradicting annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured with clear sections (mode descriptions, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check). Every sentence adds value, no redundancy or tautology. Appropriate length for the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Comprehensive explanation of all behavioral aspects despite no output schema. Details response structure (opportunities[], partition_check fields, fill check results), threshold values (3pp, 0.30 Jaccard, 20% placeholder), and cross-reference to polymarket_fill_risk. Fully addresses the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters have schema descriptions, and the tool description adds extensive semantic value beyond the schema: explains usage modes, accepted input formats (slugs or URLs for event, seed questions for topic), and internal logic. High schema coverage (100%) with rich elaboration.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. Distinguishes between three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) with specific details, setting it apart from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' Recommends event mode for specific markets and explains cross-event usage, giving clear contextual cues for the agent.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools overlap significantly: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded serve nearly identical purposes, and deep_research further duplicates. Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, etc.) also have overlapping scopes, making it hard for an agent to select the correct one without deep inspection.

Naming Consistency3/5

Tool names use a mix of patterns: some are descriptive phrases (ai_visibility_check, generate_llms_txt), others are domain-prefixed (nz_tender_*, polymarket_*) but lack a uniform verb_noun structure. The ask_pipeworx series diverges from the rest, and verb choices are inconsistent (compare_entities vs scan_competitor_ai_presence).

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the surface is large and feels bloated. The server covers multiple distinct domains (NZ tenders, Polymarket, memory, subscriptions) that could be separate servers. Many tools are variants of the same core functionality (e.g., four ask_pipeworx variants), inflating the count without clear necessity.

Completeness3/5

For a general-purpose data query server, the tool set covers a broad range of sources (SEC, FDA, FRED, etc.) and includes CRUD for memory and subscriptions. However, obvious gaps exist: no dedicated web search tool (ask_pipeworx is for structured data), and NZ coverage is limited to tenders only. Missing update/delete for some resources (e.g., no way to modify a subscription beyond unsubscribe).