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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare the tool read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description adds substantial behavioral detail: caching for 1 hour keyed on all knobs, diagnostics for empty segments (filter_skips, funnel counters), a 24h-move warning, and the Fed-exclusion caveat. This goes well beyond the static annotation flags and primes the agent for expected behavior.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with purpose but quickly becomes an exhaustive specification of model internals (per-sport α values, GDELT ratios, FRED log-returns, gate thresholds). While this information is useful, it makes the description overly long and hard to scan. A more structured or summarized format would improve conciseness without losing critical meaning.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining the response, and it does so thoroughly: it details top-level segments (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics) and per-opportunity fields (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume). It also explains why segments may be empty and how knobs affect the returned opportunities, making the tool self-contained.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, providing a baseline of 3, but the description significantly enriches parameter understanding. For example, it explains that min_partition_leg_kelly applies to per-leg Kelly because parent-level kelly_fraction_half is always 0 for partition overrounds, and that max_spread_pp/min_liquidity serve as tradeable-edge filters. It also ties slippage_pp to Polymarket's zero-fee environment and typical bid/ask costs.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence clearly states the tool's function: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price,' and even provides a concrete use case ('what should I bet on today'). It differentiates itself from siblings by emphasizing the Pipeworx disagreement framework and the specific model-family segments it returns.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear contextual guidance: 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets' and offers detailed knob-based filtering instructions. However, it does not explicitly compare against sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edge_tracker, though the Fed-note section partially warns against relying on Fed-related signals in certain cases.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping or unclear purposes, e.g., multiple entity research tools (entity_profile, recent_changes, compare_entities, validate_claim) and several betting tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_kalshi_spread). The memory tools (remember, recall, forget) and generic lookup tools (ask_pipeworx, discover_tools) further blur boundaries, making it hard for an agent to consistently select the right tool.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names follow no consistent pattern: some use snake_case verbs (forget, recall, remember), others are noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_changes), and many have mixed conventions (ai_visibility_check, ask_pipeworx, bet_research). There is no clear verb_noun structure, and the naming style varies widely across the set.

Tool Count3/5

At 22 tools, the count is within a reasonable range, but the server's stated purpose ('Geoboundaries') is severely mismatched with the actual tool set, which covers data retrieval, betting, memory, and more. The number is not excessive for the breadth of functionality, but it feels bloated for a server that should be focused on geographic boundaries.

Completeness1/5

The server is named 'Geoboundaries' but only provides two boundary-related tools (get_boundaries, get_geometry). The remaining 20 tools are unrelated, covering general data access, betting arbitrage, and memory operations. This leaves massive gaps for the implied domain (no tools for boundary editing, search by location, or other geographic operations) while over-supplying tools for unrelated tasks.