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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false. The description elaborates with details on monotonicity checks, partition_sum, Jaccard similarity filter, partition placeholder filter, fill check against live CLOB depth, and response structure. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but slightly verbose; it front-loads the main purpose and then details modes. Each sentence adds value, but some technical depth could be streamlined without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, algorithms, fill check) and absence of an output schema, the description is remarkably complete. It explains response structure, trade conditions, and edge cases like placeholders and Jaccard similarity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% for both parameters. The description adds significant value beyond schema: explains recommended usage, accepted formats (URLs), semantics of slug vs topic, and when to use each. This allows precise invocation.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between event mode, topic mode, and a trending scan with no args, making the purpose evident and differentiating from siblings.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each parameter mode (event for specific market, topic for cross-event, no args for trending). It also explains fill check limitations and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, but does not explicitly contrast with all sibling tools like polymarket_edges.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-duplicates: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx, and discover_tools/suggest_questions plus entity_profile/recent_changes/compare_entities/validate_claim overlap in purpose. An agent selecting among the five ask/deep-research variants or six Polymarket tools will frequently need to read lengthy descriptions to avoid picking the wrong one.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are readable snake_case and clear verb_noun phrases like search_articles, resolve_entity, and validate_claim, with helpful families like polymarket_* and timeline_*. However, several tools are bare noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_alerts, pipeworx_trending, tone_distribution), and the memory trio (remember/recall/forget) breaks the domain-prefix pattern.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is past the 25+ threshold and feels bloated for a server nominally about GDELT; much of the surface is meta/utility tooling (diagnostics, memory, discovery, subscriptions) rather than core news retrieval. Several tools could be consolidated, such as ask_pipeworx_beta and the multiple Polymarket edge/arb/research variants.

Completeness4/5

For its broad data/news/prediction-market scope, the surface is quite complete: GDELT search, volume, tone, and distribution are covered, along with entity resolution, company profiles, comparisons, claim verification, and trade-side analytics. Minor gaps exist, such as no full-text article fetch or direct GDELT raw-event export, but agents can mostly work around them.

Resources