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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, non-destructive, idempotent behavior. The description adds rich behavioral context: how it walks child markets, performs partition checks, uses Jaccard similarity filter, drops placeholder slugs, and includes fill check against order book depth. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with sections for each mode and technical details. While not extremely concise, every sentence adds necessary information for correct usage. Could be slightly trimmed without loss.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array with fields) and the fill_check results. It covers edge cases like skipped_low_similarity and placeholder filtering. Complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema descriptions are present for both parameters (coverage 100%). The tool description adds further meaning with examples of valid values (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026', 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal') and explains the behavior of each mode.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies different modes (no args, event, topic) and distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each parameter: no args for trending scan, event for specific market slug, topic for cross-event scanning. Also advises against trading when realizable edge ≤ 0, and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but there is notable overlap among ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research—all of which route questions to the same underlying catalog. The polymarket_* family also has several opportunity-scanning tools (edges, arbitrage, bet_research) that agents could confuse without reading the long descriptions carefully.

Naming Consistency5/5

All 34 tool names use lowercase snake_case with a clear verb-first or noun-descriptive pattern (list_feeds, read_feed, remember, resolve_entity, polymarket_arbitrage). Even compound names like ai_visibility_check and ask_pipeworx_grounded follow a predictable, consistent style. No mixed conventions or camelCase deviations.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is far more than the apparent 'Gaming Feeds' scope suggests—only list_feeds, read_feed, and fetch_feed actually relate to gaming feeds. The rest form a sprawling data-research and prediction-market suite, creating a severe mismatch between the server name and its actual tool surface.

Completeness4/5

Viewed as a general Pipeworx data-access platform, the tool set is quite complete: question routing, grounded answers, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, claim validation, memory, subscriptions, alerts, feed reading, and tool discovery are all covered. The only notable gaps are feed management (no create/update/delete for custom feeds) and a few odd add-ons like generate_llms_txt that feel outside the core domain.