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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior. The description adds significant behavioral context: fill check against live CLOB depth, Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), placeholder filter (>20% returns null), and detailed response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-organized but lengthy, covering multiple modes, algorithms, and edge cases. While every sentence adds value, it could be slightly more concise; however, the structure (separating modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check) is clear and logical.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array with fields, partition check details) and all relevant algorithmic behaviors (Jaccard similarity, placeholder filter, fill check). This covers the tool's complexity adequately.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the description adds substantial meaning: explains that event accepts slugs or full URLs, topic is a seed question, and provides usage context for each parameter (e.g., recommended mode for specific markets). This goes beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It differentiates three modes (trending scan, event, topic) and explains what each does. While it does not explicitly contrast with sibling tools like polymarket_edges, the purpose is specific and distinct.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also advises against trading when realizable edge ≤ 0 and points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, offering clear alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools are distinct (event search, subscriptions, memory, Polymarket arbitrage, data lookups), but ai_visibility_check, scan_competitor_ai_presence, bet_research, polymarket_edges, and polymarket_arbitrage have overlapping purposes around competitive research and prediction-market edge-finding. The detailed descriptions disambiguate them, though an agent could confuse polymarket_edges with polymarket_arbitrage.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names are mostly descriptive and consistent: search_events, event, categories, tags are aligned; ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, entity_profile follow a similar pattern. However, polymarket_* tools have an odd mix of `polymarket_arbitrage`, `polymarket_fill_risk`, and `polymarket_edge_tracker`, and discover_tools/recent_alerts/recent_changes are consistent, mostly. Naming is quite consistent overall with minor deviations.

Tool Count3/5

At 35 tools, the count is heavier than typical MCP servers, but it reflects a broad service (Funcheap data + Pipeworx data platform + pred markets). Still, plenty of tools serve the same primary purpose (polymarket_, ask_pipeworx variants) so some pruning would improve the surface.

Completeness4/5

The surface appears complete for its domain: search/retrieve events, category/tag navigation, memory, subscriptions (create/list/cancel/pull), data lookups, entity resolution, comparisons, profiles, edge scanning, and feedback. Minor gaps include no direct 'update' on events (but events are static), and no pricing fetch tool separate from event text, though body text covers it.