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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint. The description adds rich behavioral context: how scans work, partition filter, semantic anchor for cross-event pairs, fill check details, and response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Although lengthy, the description is well-structured with clear sections and front-loaded purpose. Every sentence adds value, but some internal details (e.g., 'skipped_low_similarity surfaces...') could be slightly condensed without losing meaning.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with no output schema, the description comprehensively covers response fields, edge cases (low similarity, placeholders), fill check, and references to sibling tool for custom sizing. It provides a complete understanding of tool behavior.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The description adds significant meaning beyond schema: examples of event slugs, seed questions, explanation of internal processing (e.g., 'walks child markets', 'flattens markets'). Baseline 3 exceeded.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description uses a specific verb ('Find arbitrage opportunities') and resource ('on Polymarket') with clear methodology ('monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks'). It distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) and their behaviors, differentiating it from siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic for cross-event scanning'. Includes recommendations, alternatives (cross-event catches patterns single-event misses), and a note on when not to trade based on fill check.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Every tool has a clearly distinct purpose, with detailed descriptions that differentiate between similar-sounding tools like ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research. The Polymarket-related tools each focus on a specific aspect (arbitrage, edges, tracking, fill risk, cross-venue spread), and memory/subscription tools are neatly separated.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tool names follow a verb_noun or noun_verb pattern with underscores (e.g., ask_pipeworx, validate_claim, resolve_entity). However, there is some inconsistency: single-word names like 'forget' and 'random' mix with multi-word names, and a few names use different structures (e.g., bet_research as noun_noun, random_by_category as adjective_preposition).

Tool Count3/5

32 tools is on the high side for a single server, covering a broad range of functionalities from data queries to betting and memory. While the number might be justified by the platform's scope, it feels heavy, and the server name 'Foodish' suggests a narrower food-focused purpose, creating a mismatch.

Completeness4/5

As a general data platform, the tool set is comprehensive, covering queries, research, entity resolution, memory, subscriptions, and various analytical tools. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no direct editing or upload capabilities), but the core workflows are well-supported. However, the server name 'Foodish' implies food-related tools, which are minimal, so completeness relative to the name is poor.