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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Despite readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, and idempotentHint annotations already covering safety, the description goes far beyond them. It discloses that unknown metric_type/match_subtype legs are never paired, that compatibility_codes[] can be non-empty even when matches exist, that temporal_alignment null means 'could not be computed' rather than aligned, that Kalshi fees are not modeled so spreads are gross, and exactly what each compatibility code means. This is exemplary behavioral disclosure.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but the tool is genuinely complex with many caveats, and nearly every sentence adds distinct value. It is well-structured with section markers like TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, and explicitly calls out codes and counters. It could be trimmed slightly, but the density is justified by the need to prevent misuse.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the absence of an output schema, and the many edge cases involved, the description covers everything an agent needs: modes, response shape, safety fields, compatibility codes, skipped-leg counters, fee caveats, and the unreliability of pre-mapped topics. No critical behavioral or interpretive gap remains.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all three parameters and their example formats. The description adds meaningful semantics beyond the schema by explaining that explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side and that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. This is a clear improvement over baseline, though it does repeat some schema content.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the tool as computing cross-venue spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, with the first sentence stating the core action and scope. It also explains the two operating modes (topic shortcuts and explicit ticker/slug pairing). It does not explicitly differentiate itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage, so it stops just short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit guidance on when to use topic mode versus explicit mode: topic mode auto-fetches pre-mapped events, while explicit mode allows custom pairings. It also provides strong when-not-to-use context by warning that most pre-mapped topics return compatibility warnings and that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable. It does not name alternatives among sibling tools, so it is not a perfect 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are documented as currently identical, ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research route the same class of questions, and the six polymarket_* tools plus bet_research form a confusing cluster. Some clusters (Figshare fetch/search, memory, subscriptions) are distinct, but overall boundaries are frequently unclear.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are uniformly lowercase snake_case and mostly follow a predictable verb_noun pattern (ask_pipeworx, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity, scan_dependency). The main inconsistency is the mix of bare-noun Figshare resource names (article, articles, collection, collections) with verb-phrase tool names.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is well above the comfortable scope for a coherent server, especially one named Figshare. Most of the surface is unrelated to Figshare, bundling Pipeworx research, Polymarket analysis, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, and npm checks into a single connection.

Completeness2/5

The Figshare read-side is reasonably covered (search, article metadata, files, collections, categories, licenses), but there are no create/update/delete or account/upload operations. The broader advertised surface is a grab bag with no clear domain boundary, and several subdomains are shallow while prediction markets are over-represented.