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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint. The description adds significant context: scanning top ~200 markets, event/topic modes, partition_check conditions, fill check against live CLOB depth, and edge cases like placeholder filters. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It is informative but could be slightly more concise. However, every paragraph adds value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema provided, but the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, etc.) and partition_check object. It covers input modes, behavior, and edge cases. Sufficient for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The description vastly expands: provides usage examples, explains how each mode works, details about semantic anchor, partition filter, and fill check. Adds meaning far beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between 'event' and 'topic' modes and mentions fill check. This specificity differentiates it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states when to call with no args (trending scan), pass 'event' for per-event partition check, or 'topic' for cross-event scan. Recommends event for specific markets and explains when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp <= 0). Provides clear context and exclusion criteria.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

There are several clusters of tools with overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all do data-fetching/research with somewhat subtle differences. Polymarket tools also overlap (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, bet_research, polymarket_kalshi_spread). However, most tools have detailed descriptions that clarify their distinct roles, and the core data-lookup tools are differentiated by grounding level and scope.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a consistent verb_noun or noun_verb pattern (e.g., search_registrants, list_foreign_principals, get_registrant_documents, subscribe, unsubscribe, remember, recall, forget, resolve_entity, validate_claim). Deviations include brand-name tools like ask_pipeworx, pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending, and polymarket_kalshi_spread that mix conventions but are still readable and predictable within their domain.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy for a single MCP server, especially with multiple overlapping research entry points (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions). The broad data-router nature of the server explains the size, but it is still a large surface that would be better consolidated.

Completeness4/5

The server covers its visible domains well: data lookup, grounded verification, entity profiling, comparison, change tracking, subscription lifecycle, memory, and FARA-specific queries. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no direct tool for updating saved memory beyond forgetting/re-remembering, no tool to create custom alert types beyond the three supported categories), but the core workflows are complete.

Resources