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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive nature. The description adds behavioral context: it performs monotonicity checks, partition_sum checks, uses Jaccard similarity thresholds, filters placeholder slugs, and includes a fill check against live CLOB depth. It also warns not to trade when realizable edge <= 0. This goes well beyond what annotations provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured: it starts with overall purpose, then details each mode with bullet points. It is front-loaded with the core function. However, it is somewhat verbose with technical details (e.g., Jaccard threshold, placeholder filter, fill check) that could be condensed. Still, every sentence adds value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description explains the response format: opportunities array with fields (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context) and partition_check object in event mode. It also covers fill check behavior and cross-event similarity filtering. It references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, providing a complete picture.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema has 100% description coverage for its two parameters (event and topic). The description adds substantial meaning: event mode walks child markets, checks ordering, and computes partition_check; topic mode searches related events, flattens markets, and runs comparator. It also explains semantic anchor (Jaccard threshold) and partition filter, which are not in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes: trending scan (no args), single-event mode (event parameter), and cross-event mode (topic parameter). This specificity differentiates it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly explains when to use each invocation pattern: no args for trending scan, event for a specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It provides recommendations (event recommended for specific markets) and explains the benefit of cross-event mode. However, it does not explicitly state when NOT to use this tool, such as for single-outcome markets or when real-time data is not needed.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy the same "answer a factual question" niche: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, validate_claim, and bet_research all route to the same underlying catalog, so an agent must parse subtle differences to pick correctly. scan_competitor_ai_presence also wraps ai_visibility_check, adding another near-duplicate. The detailed descriptions help, but the boundaries are genuinely fuzzy.

Naming Consistency3/5

The set mixes several conventions: fac_*, polymarket_*, and pipeworx_* prefixes coexist with bare verbs (remember, recall, forget, subscribe, unsubscribe) and noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_changes, bet_research). ask_pipeworx_beta/grounded use a suffix pattern while pipeworx_feedback/trending use a prefix, so there is no single predictable scheme. Still, most names are readable and describe what they do.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is well above the 25+ threshold and creates a heavy surface for any client to load and reason about. The broad data-platform scope explains some of the count, but many tools are meta-variants of the same query/research capability rather than genuinely distinct operations.

Completeness4/5

For the server's apparent purpose—authoritative data lookup, research, prediction-market analysis, and account/feed management—the surface covers the core lifecycle: query, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, recent changes, claim verification, subscriptions, alerts, and memory. Minor gaps exist (no direct tool to fetch a pipeworx:// citation URI; no raw per-pack access), but most workflows are supported.

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