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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral details beyond annotations: caching (1h at KV level), three model families with their exact formulas and models, tradeable-edge knobs, output structure including diagnostics for empty segments, and a '24h-move warning' when edge may already be priced in. Annotations only indicate read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive—this description adds substantial operational context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with numbered segments, bold terms, and clear delineation of model families and knobs. Every sentence adds unique information, though the density may be high for some agents. It is front-loaded with the primary use case and model families.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the complexity (9 parameters, no output schema, multiple segments), the description is highly complete: it explains the response top-level structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, diagnostics) and caching behavior. It lacks an explicit JSON output example but covers the key fields. With no output schema, the burden is high, but the description handles it well.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but the description adds significant value beyond basic schema descriptions—e.g., explaining the relationship between min_kelly and min_partition_leg_kelly, providing default values with reasoning (slippage_pp default 0.3 with context on Polymarket spreads), and offering practical tuning guidance (bump/ drop for thin partitions).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states it scans Polymarket markets and returns opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price, with the explicit use case 'what should I bet on today'. It distinguishes from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edge_tracker by focusing on edge detection from model families.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit use context ('discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets') and explains the three segments and when each applies. It also notes that Fed bets are excluded from ranking due to unreliable signal, offering guidance on limitations. It does not explicitly state when not to use it versus alternatives, but the context is clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation1/5

Multiple tools appear to do nearly the same thing: ask_pipeworx, ask_ipeworx_beta (explicitly identical at the moment), ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all route questionanswering in a very similar way. Even with long descriptions, the sheer number of overlapping query/research/analysis tools (ai_visibility_check vs scan_comperitor_ai_presence, all polymarket_*) would make an agent uncertain which to call.

Naming Consistency2/5

The set uses snake_case everywhere but that is the only consistent part. There is a mess of verb_noun patterns, noun_verb patterns (cjeu_search vs search_legislation, cj_judgment vs get_document), bare noun phrases (entity_profile, compliance_index, pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_edges), and verb phrases (ask_ipeworx, generate_elms_txt, resolve_entry). A user cannot predict whether the noun comes first, so naming is readable but not predictable.

Tool Count2/5

39 tools is far over the 25+ threshold for a coherent set, and a large number of them (predictor markets ten, AI visibility, memory, subscriptions, pipework meta-tools) are outside the EUR-Lex legal research domain. The total count suggests a bundled everything-server rather than a focused legal-research MCP. It is not extreme enough for a 1 because 39 is still within a region where a broader meta-pipework suite could plausibly exist — but it's still too many.

Completeness4/5

For the EUR-Lex domain, the legal tools are nearly complete: search_legislation + compliance_index locate acts, get_metadata/list_articles/get_article/get_document read them, and cjeu_search/cjeu_judgment cover case law. Missing links that would make it fully seamless are amendment tracking, cross-references and direct CELEX/EURL-Lex citation search integration, but all basic 'find and read an act or judgment' workflows are supported.