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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true and non-destructive; description reinforces this and adds details: scans top ~200 markets, uses Jaccard similarity, filters placeholders, and includes fill check logic. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is fairly long but well-structured with sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence adds value, though some compression could be possible. Still, it remains clear and organized.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully explains the response structure: opportunities[] fields, partition_check fields, and fill check details. It covers edge cases and practical usage, making it complete for agent decision-making.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema descriptions for both event and topic are clear, but description adds significant context: provides examples of slugs and seed questions, explains when to use each, and describes their effects in detail. Schema coverage is 100%, and description further enriches understanding.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states it finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. Distinguishes between modes (no args, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly tells when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scan. Recommends event mode and warns against trading when fill check shows realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. Mentions alternative polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The server includes many overlapping tools (e.g., multiple ask_pipeworx variants, epa_regulation vs. epa_search vs. discover_tools). More critically, the tool set covers vastly different domains (Polymarket bets, npm packages, AI visibility, memory storage) alongside EPA regulations, making it hard for an agent to distinguish purposes.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names use a mix of styles: underscore (epa_regulation, ask_pipeworx), camelCase (deep_research, suggest_questions), and verb phrases (scan_competitor_ai_presence). No consistent pattern is followed across the set.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is high for a server named 'Epa Regulations'. The vast majority are unrelated to EPA regulations (e.g., Polymarket, npm scanning, memory functions), making the scope mismatched. A focused server should have fewer, domain-specific tools.

Completeness1/5

For a server claiming to be about EPA regulations, only two tools (epa_regulation, epa_search) are directly relevant. The rest are from unrelated domains, leaving severe gaps in expected functionality like rule updates, compliance checks, or cross-referencing with other environmental data.