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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations by disclosing that pairing is based on keyword overlap and is unverified, that spreads are gross rather than net of Kalshi fees, that compatibility warnings can appear even with matched pairs, and that null temporal_alignment does not mean aligned. This is exactly the kind of behavioral caveat an agent needs before trusting returned values.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with clear labels like TWO MODES, RESPONSE, and SAFETY FIELDS, and nearly every sentence adds caveats or field semantics. There is some redundancy around token-overlap matching and temporal mismatch codes, but for a tool with no output schema and this much behavioral nuance, the density is largely justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining response shape, and it does so unusually thoroughly: top_spreads_pp, compatibility_codes, temporal_alignment, skipped_unclassified, low_confidence_pairs, and fee disclaimers are all defined. It even explains what null means and warns that unmatched or unknown legs are never paired. The only minor assumption is that the caller supplies one of the two modes, but 'TWO MODES' makes that clear enough.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds a meaningful layer by framing the parameters as two modes, explaining that topic is a pre-mapped shortcut and that the explicit pair overrides the topic-mapped side. This helps an agent reason about parameter combinations beyond what the individual schema descriptions provide.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a concrete definition: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question,' which makes the tool's function unmistakable. It clearly identifies the resource and the core computation, but it does not explicitly distinguish itself from sibling tools such as polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly explains the two invocation modes — pre-mapped topic shortcuts versus explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — and gives practical guidance such as 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' It sets expectations about when results may be unreliable, but it does not explicitly state when to prefer a sibling tool over this one.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clearly distinct purpose, with detailed descriptions that eliminate ambiguity. Even similar tools like ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research are well-differentiated by use case (casual, high-stakes, multi-faceted). The Polymarket and EOL tool suites are internally distinct.

Naming Consistency4/5

Naming mostly follows snake_case with verb_noun or prefix patterns, but there is inconsistency: e.g., 'ask_pipeworx' vs 'bet_research' vs 'deep_research'. The Polymarket and memory tool groups are internally consistent, but overall the server mixes conventions across sub-domains.

Tool Count3/5

34 tools is on the high side, but the server covers multiple domains (EOL taxonomy, Pipeworx data, Polymarket betting, memory, subscriptions). The count is borderline excessive for a focused server; meta-tools like discover_tools and suggest_questions help, but the sheer number can overwhelm an agent.

Completeness3/5

The tool set covers many data sources and analysis tasks well, but the server name 'Eol' implies a biological taxonomy focus, which is underserved (only 4 tools). For the broader implicit purpose of a research assistant, there are notable gaps like open-web search, image analysis, or document management.