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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true, and the description aligns with these. It adds rich behavioral context: semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter, fill check, and description of response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured starting with a clear one-liner, followed by detailed mode explanations and algorithmic details. While every sentence adds value, the length could be slightly reduced without losing clarity. It is not wasteful but on the longer side.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the complexity (two modes, multiple checks, no output schema), the description thoroughly covers behavior, edge cases (placeholder slugs, low similarity), and response format. It also references a sibling tool for further sizing, making it self-contained enough for the agent to use correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with both parameters described. The description adds meaningful extra detail: for event, 'Full Polymarket URLs also accepted', and for topic, explains that it searches related events across the platform. This goes beyond the schema's minimal descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies three distinct modes (trending scan, event mode, topic mode) and provides examples, making it easy to understand what the tool does and how it differs from other tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is given on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also warns when not to trade based on the fill check, and points to the alternative tool polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Although many tools are individually well-described, there are several overlapping clusters: three ask_pipeworx variants, multiple polymarket edge/arbitrage tools, and AI-visibility checks vs their competitor-comparison wrapper. An agent can easily pick the wrong one because the boundaries (beta vs stable, grounded vs routed, edge vs arbitrage) are subtle despite the verbose descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

The set is consistently snake_case and mostly readable, so naming is not chaotic. However, the pattern is mixed: some tools use entur_/polymarket_/pipeworx_ prefixes, others are bare verbs (remember, recall, forget), and some are noun phrases (entity_profile, pipeworx_trending). The ask_pipeworx family also doesn't follow the pipeworx_ prefix convention used by neighboring tools.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the healthy range for a focused MCP server, and only three tools relate to the Entur transport domain implied by the server name. The other 31 tools form a separate, broad data/prediction-market product that appears bolted on, making the count inappropriate for the apparent purpose.

Completeness2/5

The Entur transport subset has stops search, departures, and journey planning, but misses common public-transport needs such as disruptions, service alerts, and fare/ticket information. The broader tool set is extensive but lacks a single coherent domain to be complete against, leaving the overall surface scattered and hard to trust as an integrated whole.

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