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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, and non-destructive hints, which are consistent with the description. The description adds extensive behavioral details including monotonicity checks, partition-sum logic, semantic anchor constraints, placeholders filter, and fill check mechanics, far exceeding what annotations provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is relatively long but all information is relevant and valuable. It is front-loaded with the core purpose. A slight reduction in technical detail could improve conciseness, but it remains well-structured.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array, partition_check object with fields like gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning) and the fill check mechanism. It also mentions custom sizing via another tool, ensuring the agent understands both outputs and limitations.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters, but the description adds significant meaning: 'event' accepts slugs or full URLs, 'topic' uses seed questions, and explains the behavior of each mode in detail, going well beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks, clearly differentiating three modes (trending scan, event-specific, cross-event). This is specific and distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: call with no args for trending scan, use 'event' for a specific market slug, and 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It also warns against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0, indicating when not to use the output.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The ENTSO-E energy tools are clearly distinct, but the Pipeworx half contains overlapping query modes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, and ask_pipeworx/ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research/validate_claim all route natural-language questions to the same underlying catalog. The Polymarket tools also blur edge detection, arbitrage, fill-risk, and persistence tracking, so an agent can easily select the wrong one.

Naming Consistency2/5

The five ENTSO-E tools use a clean snake_case noun pattern, but the rest mix brand verbs (ask_pipeworx, bet_research), bare memory verbs (remember, recall, forget), and polymorphic prefixes (polymarket_*), with inconsistent suffixes like beta, grounded, and kalshi_spread. There is no server-wide predictable naming convention.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is too many for the apparent scope, and the server name promises ENTSO-E while only 5 of 36 tools serve that domain. Even viewed as a general data utility, the count is heavy and includes duplicate query modes, though individual clusters do have some purpose.

Completeness3/5

For an ENTSO-E server, the five energy tools cover the basics (generation, load, price, flow, capacity) but omit common datasets like generation forecasts, balancing/imbalance prices, and outages. The unrelated Pipeworx tools add broad research, memory, and subscription coverage, but the overall surface feels like a general-purpose assistant with an energy add-on rather than a complete energy domain.