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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description is exceptionally detailed about internal behavior, far beyond what annotations provide. It explains the three model families (MODEL_DRIVEN, STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE, CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT), the edge calculation (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction), the diagnostics output, and even caching behavior ('Cached 1h at the KV level'). Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint as true, and the description aligns with these (no mutation, idempotent, open-world). No contradiction detected.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured: opening sentence defines purpose, followed by detailed segment descriptions, then response fields, then parameter knobs, then response structure. It is front-loaded with the most important information. However, the description could be slightly more concise by trimming some internal details (e.g., specific alpha values for sports). Still, it remains readable and informative.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description is remarkably complete given the tool's complexity (9 parameters, no output schema, nested response). It explains the response top-level structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), the meaning of edge_pp_net and kelly fields, and even the caching policy. It leaves no ambiguity about what the tool returns or how it behaves. The diagnostic counters help callers understand empty segments. This is exemplary contextual completeness.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

With 100% schema description coverage, each parameter already has a clear definition. The tool description adds value by grouping parameters into 'Tradeable-edge knobs' and explaining their interplay (e.g., min_kelly vs min_partition_leg_kelly). It also provides context like slippage_pp defaults and when to adjust. This goes beyond the schema, hence a 4 rather than baseline 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states the tool's purpose: scanning Polymarket markets for opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. It uses a specific verb ('scan') and resource ('Polymarket markets'), and clearly distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage (which focuses on arbitrage) and polymarket_edge_tracker (which likely tracks edges over time). The description also identifies the target use case ('what should I bet on today'), making it clear when to use this tool.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description is built around a clear use case ('what should I bet on today') and explains that the tool discovers opportunities without paging through hundreds of markets. It provides guidance on how to use knobs (min_liquidity, max_spread_pp, etc.) to filter opportunities. However, it does not explicitly state when not to use this tool or compare it with siblings like polymarket_arbitrage or bet_research. Still, the context is strong enough for an agent to make informed decisions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clearly defined, distinct purpose. Even closely related tools like ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_grounded are differentiated by use case (casual vs. high-stakes), and the prediction market tools each cover a specific function (research, edge detection, arbitrage, fill risk, tracking, cross-venue spreads). Detailed descriptions eliminate ambiguity.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names predominantly follow a verb_noun pattern (e.g., ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, resolve_entity), but a few use noun_noun or adjective_noun forms (e.g., entity_profile, recent_alerts). The naming is generally predictable and readable, with minor deviations from a strict pattern.

Tool Count3/5

The server offers 32 tools, which is above the typical 3-15 range for a well-scoped server. However, the vast domain (financials, prediction markets, news, memory, subscriptions, etc.) justifies the count. It is on the heavy side but still manageable with clear organization.

Completeness5/5

The tool surface is remarkably complete for the apparent domain: exploration (discover_tools, suggest_questions), identifier resolution (resolve_entity), data retrieval (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, validate_claim), prediction market analysis (full suite), memory (remember/recall/forget), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts), and extras (ENS, dependency scan, AI visibility). No obvious gaps exist.

Resources