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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior. The description adds significant behavioral context: how arbitrage detection works (monotonicity, partition checks), the fill check mechanism, semantic anchor threshold, placeholder filtering, and output structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is efficient and well-structured, front-loading the main purpose and then detailing each mode. Every sentence adds necessary context without redundancy. The use of section headers (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) improves readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (three modes, edge cases, fill check logic), the description is remarkably complete. It covers input behavior, output structure, error handling (placeholder filter, low similarity), and references sibling tools. No output schema, but the description sufficiently describes the response format.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema has 2 optional parameters with descriptions. The description adds substantial value: explains event mode with examples, topic mode with seed questions, and cross-event behavior. It clarifies the difference between modes and adds context that the schema alone does not provide.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) with specific use cases, making the purpose unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode (no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event). It also references a sibling tool (polymarket_fill_risk) for custom sizing. However, it does not explicitly compare against other siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_edge_tracker, which could help an agent choose more precisely.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clearly defined, distinct purpose. Even closely related tools like ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_grounded are differentiated by use case (casual vs. high-stakes), and the prediction market tools each cover a specific function (research, edge detection, arbitrage, fill risk, tracking, cross-venue spreads). Detailed descriptions eliminate ambiguity.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names predominantly follow a verb_noun pattern (e.g., ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, resolve_entity), but a few use noun_noun or adjective_noun forms (e.g., entity_profile, recent_alerts). The naming is generally predictable and readable, with minor deviations from a strict pattern.

Tool Count3/5

The server offers 32 tools, which is above the typical 3-15 range for a well-scoped server. However, the vast domain (financials, prediction markets, news, memory, subscriptions, etc.) justifies the count. It is on the heavy side but still manageable with clear organization.

Completeness5/5

The tool surface is remarkably complete for the apparent domain: exploration (discover_tools, suggest_questions), identifier resolution (resolve_entity), data retrieval (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, validate_claim), prediction market analysis (full suite), memory (remember/recall/forget), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts), and extras (ENS, dependency scan, AI visibility). No obvious gaps exist.

Resources