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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true, and destructiveHint=false. The description adds rich behavioral context: monotonicity checks, partition-sum calculation, similarity thresholds, placeholder filtering, and fill-check logic. It discloses that the tool analyzes rather than mutates, and explains edge cases like skipped_low_similarity and null signals. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections but is somewhat verbose (multiple detailed explanations of modes, filters, fill check). It front-loads the main purpose and modes. While every sentence adds value, some redundancy exists (e.g., repeating partition_check explanation). Could be tightened slightly without loss of clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description covers all major aspects: modes, input semantics, filtering, fill check, and response structure. However, the response structure is described only loosely (opportunities[] with fields), and there is no explicit list of every return field. Given the tool's complexity and lack of output schema, the description is mostly complete but leaves minor ambiguity about the exact output format.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds substantial meaning beyond the schema. It explains that 'event' expects a slug or full URL and is recommended for specific markets, while 'topic' is a seed question for cross-event scanning. It also clarifies that no args triggers a trending scan, which is not obvious from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes multiple modes (no args, event, topic) and explicitly differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk. The verb 'Find' and specific resource 'arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket' make purpose unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each invocation mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning. It also explains the semantic anchor and partition filter to avoid false positives, and points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. This gives clear context and alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes, such as ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research, which all perform similar data retrieval. The multiple Polymarket tools also overlap in focus, making it unclear which to use for a given task.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names are inconsistent: some use 'ask_', 'polymarket_', 'pipeworx_', while others like 'electricity_price', 'installed_power', and 'remember' follow no coherent pattern. Conventions are mixed and unpredictable.

Tool Count2/5

With 35 tools, the server is over-scoped for an 'Energy Charts' purpose. Only 5-6 tools are directly energy-related; the rest are a miscellany of data services, prediction markets, and memory functions, which is excessive and unfocused.

Completeness2/5

The server lacks essential energy analysis tools like forecast, emission factors, or capacity utilization, yet includes many unrelated tools (e.g., betting, memory). This creates significant gaps for the stated domain.

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