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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses thresholds (Jaccard ≥0.30, >3pp, >20% placeholder), the partition filter, the fill check behavior, and the meaning of realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. This goes well beyond the readOnlyHint and other annotations, adding critical context without contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but densely packed with essential information. It is front-loaded with a clear summary and uses capitalized section labels for readability. Every sentence adds value, and the length is justified by the tool's complexity and multiple modes.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully covers return values (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check fields) and failure modes (skipped_low_similarity, placeholders). It also explains how to interpret results and when not to act, making it complete for real-world usage.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds substantial meaning: it provides concrete examples of event slugs and topic seeds, explains the no-args behavior, and clarifies the difference between event and topic modes. This enriches the parameter semantics beyond the schema definitions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools by specifying the mechanism and mentioning its fill-check integration, making the purpose specific and unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is given for each mode: no args for trending_scan, event for specific market analysis, and topic for cross-event scanning. It also clarifies when to use an alternative (polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing) and warns not to trade when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes, especially among Pipeworx query tools (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded), betting research tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_kalshi_spread), and memory tools (remember, recall, forget). An agent could easily select the wrong tool. Additionally, tools like 'discover_tools', 'search', and 'search_within' have unclear boundaries.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tool names use snake_case (e.g., 'entity_profile', 'validate_claim'), but there are inconsistencies with single-word verbs like 'forget', 'recall', 'remember', 'subscribe', 'unsubscribe', and the mixed pattern of 'ask_pipeworx' vs 'pipeworx_feedback'. Overall, the naming is somewhat consistent but not fully predictable.

Tool Count3/5

With 32 tools, the server has a high but not extreme count. However, the tools span multiple unrelated domains (ontologies, financial data, betting, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility), making the server feel like a collection of disparate features rather than a focused toolset. This reduces the appropriateness of the count for a single server.

Completeness2/5

The tool surface has significant gaps. For example, ontology tools lack create/update/delete operations; betting tools only provide research and analysis but no placement; memory tools allow save/recall/delete but not update; and there is no tool for user authentication or account management despite subscription features. The server covers many areas but none completely.

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