Skip to main content
Glama

Duration

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior. Description adds extensive behavioral context: mechanisms (Jaccard similarity, placeholder filtering, fill check), data sources (CLOB depth), and edge cases (partition placeholder >20% fraction returns null). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is long but well-structured: starts with purpose and modes, then dives into details with logical sections (semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check). Every sentence adds value; no wasted words given the complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking output schema, the description fully explains the response structure: opportunities array with fields, partition_check object, fill check results. Input parameters are thoroughly covered. References sibling tool for custom sizing, completing the user journey.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with basic descriptions. The tool description significantly enriches parameter meaning: explains event slug vs URL acceptance, topic as seed question, describes partition_check for event mode, and cross-event similarity anchor. Provides concrete examples like 'fed-decision-may-2026'.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. Differentiates between trending_scan, event mode, and topic mode with specific examples. Distinct from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly specifies when to use each call mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. Provides recommendations ('event recommended for specific market') and warns about conditions when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

All Duration toolsInspect
Try in Browser
RayrunBuild, deploy, and operate MCP servers without becoming an infrastructure team.ray.runAd

Glama MCP Gateway

Add one secure layer between your agents and this server.

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

The tool set includes several overlapping tools: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded serve very similar purposes with only subtle differences in behavior (beta/grounded). Additionally, deep_research and validate_claim partially overlap with these. The prediction market tools are numerous but distinct, and memory/duration tools are clear. Overall, an agent would face some confusion when selecting among the ask_pipeworx variants.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools use consistent underscore_case with descriptive verb_noun patterns (e.g., list_subscriptions, resolve_entity, validate_claim). A few memory and subscription tools are single-word verbs (forget, recall, remember, subscribe, unsubscribe), which deviates slightly but remains readable. Overall naming is predictable and clear.

Tool Count3/5

With 33 tools, the server is on the heavier side. The server covers a broad scope (data queries, prediction markets, AI visibility, memory, utilities, subscriptions), which justifies many tools, but some feel redundant (e.g., three variants of ask_pipeworx, multiple polymarket edge tools). A more focused set (around 20-25) would be more typical for coherence.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface is extensive, covering factual Q&A via a universal router, entity profiles, comparisons, prediction market analysis, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, and utilities. The meta-tool ask_pipeworx provides access to thousands of structured sources, so most data needs are addressable. Minor gaps include no direct tool for specific SEC filing retrieval beyond the meta-router, but this is covered indirectly.

Resources