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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "event"
      +    ]
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "topic"
      +    ]
      +  }
      +]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and destructiveHint=false, so the agent knows this is a safe read. The description goes far beyond that, disclosing specific behavioral details: the ~200 market scan limit, the Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), placeholder filtering rules and the >20% null condition, the fill-check pricing against live CLOB depth, and the meaning of realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. These details are not in the annotations or schema and provide crucial execution-time context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Though the description is long, it is broken into clearly labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and every sentence conveys a distinct, non-redundant fact. The opening sentence is dense and informative, and the structure mirrors the tool's execution pipeline. This is an appropriate length for a tool with two distinct modes plus a fill-check subbehavior.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite the absence of an output schema, the description fully specifies the response shape: 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context)' and 'partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}'. It also covers edge cases like low similarity and placeholder-heavy partitions. Combined with strong annotations and schema, this description is complete enough for an agent to select and invoke the tool correctly without additional context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, with both parameters already described in the schema. The description adds substantial semantic depth beyond the schema: it explains what 'event' slugs look like with concrete examples ('fed-decision-may-2026'), what 'topic' queries should be, and how each parameter alters the scan behavior. It also introduces derived concepts like 'semantic anchor' and 'partition filter' that give operational meaning to the parameters.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence clearly states the tool's core function: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It names both the specific resource (Polymarket) and the method, distinguishing it from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk. The description also breaks down the two main modes (event and topic), leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit when-to-use guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check', and 'pass topic for a themed cross-event scan'. It also clarifies when to avoid this tool, instructing users to use 'polymarket_fill_risk' for custom sizing and warning 'do not trade it' when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. This is excellent differentiation among sibling tools.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have genuinely unclear boundaries: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are described as currently identical, ask_pipeworx_grounded shares the same router, and the polymarket_edges/arbitrage/fill_risk/bet_research group overlaps heavily in purpose. The remaining clusters (dog data, memory, subscriptions) are mostly distinct, so the confusion is concentrated in a few spots but severe there.

Naming Consistency3/5

Nearly all names are lower_snake_case and readable, but the conventions are mixed: get_/list_/ask_/scan_ verb-noun names sit alongside bare verbs (remember, forget, recall), noun-phrase names (entity_profile, bet_research, pipeworx_trending), and a versioned suffix (ask_pipeworx_beta). No single predictable pattern covers the whole set.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, the server is well past the 25+ threshold for feeling bloated, and the count is dominated by unrelated Pipeworx, prediction-market, and AI-visibility tools rather than the dog-data domain implied by 'dogsapi'. Only four tools actually serve the dog API, making the surface both oversized and misaligned with the server name.

Completeness3/5

The broad data-access side is thorough, covering discovery, universal routing, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, claim validation, memory, and subscriptions. However, the nominal dog domain is thin (list/get/groups/facts with no filtering or additional operations), subscriptions have no update path, and some one-off tools like generate_llms_txt and scan_dependency exist without any surrounding lifecycle.