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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint. Description adds extensive behavioral detail: scanning logic, semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filter, fill check against live CLOB depth, and response structure with conditional components.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is long but well-structured with clear sections (summary, modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, response, fill check). It front-loads key information. While verbose, each sentence adds necessary context for an arbitrage tool with complex logic.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description fully explains the response format (opportunities array with fields, partition_check object in event mode, fill check output). It covers all necessary details for correct invocation and interpretation, given tool complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters (event, topic) have schema descriptions, but the tool description adds significant meaning: event accepts slug or full URL; topic is a seed question that triggers cross-event search with similarity checks and partition filtering, ensuring proper usage.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states the verb 'Find' and resource 'arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket', specifying the method (monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks). It distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on arbitrage detection with two distinct modes (event, topic).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states when to call with no args (trending_scan), pass `event` for per-event partition_check, or `topic` for cross-event scan. Provides guidance on post-processing (fill_check) and alternative tool (polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters have overlapping purposes: the three ask_pipeworx variants are nearly identical, polymarket_edges and polymarket_arbitrage both scan for opportunities, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence create confusion. Although descriptions are detailed, an agent could easily misselect among these.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools follow snake_case verb_noun (get_article, search_journals, resolve_entity), but there are brand-prefixed names (ask_pipeworx*, pipeworx_trending, pipeworx_feedback) and noun-phrase tools (entity_profile, bet_research) that break the pattern. The three ask_pipeworx variants are consistently named but confusable.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is excessive for a coherent server, especially one where many tools are meta-routes (ask_pipeworx, deep_research) that could consolidate functionality. The count exceeds the 25-tool threshold for 'heavy' and includes several one-off tools (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) that don't fit the dominant data-access theme.

Completeness3/5

The DOAJ subset is complete for read-only search and retrieval, but the server lacks a clear domain: it mixes DOAJ, prediction markets, memory, and subscriptions. For the broader Pipeworx platform, there are some dead ends (e.g., no subscription editing, no raw historical market data, no batch tools), and the non-DOAJ tools create confusion about what the server is actually for.

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