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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, etc.), the description discloses rich behavioral details: the five model families and their logic, the response structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), caching at KV level, and per-opportunity fields like edge_pp_net and the 24h-move warning. It also explains why segments might be empty (top-N stale, failed gates, knobs), which is not inferable from annotations alone.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured, starting with the purpose, then detailing the model families, opportunity fields, knobs, and response structure. It is front-loaded with the main use case, but the density of technical specifics (e.g., FRED log-returns, GDELT ratios) may be more than needed for tool selection. Overall, it earns its length for a complex tool, though trimming would improve conciseness.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully explains the return structure: by_segment with three named segments, fed_candidates/fed_note, and _diagnostics with funnel counters and filter_skips. It also covers edge fields, caching behavior, and why certain segments may be empty. The description is sufficiently complete for an agent to understand what the tool returns and how to interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

While the input schema has 100% coverage for parameter descriptions, the tool description adds meaningful interaction semantics: it explains that min_partition_leg_kelly applies to per-leg Kelly within top_legs instead of min_kelly, and groups params as 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS' to clarify their role. This goes beyond the schema's individual descriptions, though it doesn't add syntax details for every parameter.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+scope: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It clearly differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage by focusing on Pipeworx data disagreement and daily discovery, and it details the three response segments to illustrate the tool's unique value.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states the tool is 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets,' providing clear context for when to use it. It also explains knob usage (e.g., max_spread_pp, min_partition_leg_kelly) and the Fed note, but it does not explicitly name alternatives or provide when-not-to-use conditions relative to siblings.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have nearly identical or heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical, and the six Polymarket tools (arbitrage, edges, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread, bet_research) all involve finding/analyzing prediction-market opportunities. deep_research and ask_pipeworx also overlap as general query routers, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence is another confusable pair.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case and are descriptive, but verb placement is inconsistent: some are verb-first (check_domain, compare_entities, resolve_entity), others are verb-last or noun-like (ai_visibility_check, entity_profile, pipeworx_trending, bet_research). There is no chaotic camelCase mix, but the pattern is not predictable enough to guess a tool's behavior from its name.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is far above the typical well-scoped range and the set spans multiple unrelated domains (data lookup, prediction markets, AI visibility, memory, subscriptions, email/domain validation) that have no cohesive purpose under the 'disify' name. Most tools are not related to domain or email checking, making the count feel like a grab bag rather than a focused toolkit.

Completeness2/5

For a server named 'disify', the core domain-validation surface is minimal (only check_domain and validate_email) and misses obvious operations like WHOIS lookup or breach/debounce checks. As a general data toolset it is broad but shallow in each area, with gaps such as entity_profile only supporting US public companies and no update/delete operations for most data resources.

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