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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses far more than annotations: it explains the partition filter ('drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y...'), the semantic anchor ('≥0.30 Jaccard similarity'), and the fill check ('realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means... do not trade'). These add context about output reliability and edge cases, complementing the read-only/idempotent hints without contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured, with clear sections for modes, filters, and response. Every sentence adds technical detail or usage guidance. It could be slightly tighter (e.g., condensing the partition_check explanation), but the density is justified given the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having no output schema, the description explicitly outlines the response structure: 'Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning...), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}.' It also covers behavioral nuances (fill check, similarity filter) that are essential for correct invocation and interpretation. Fully complete for a read-only analytical tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and each parameter already has a rich description, but the tool description goes further by explaining the mechanics: event mode 'walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check', while topic mode 'searches related events... flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union.' This adds meaning beyond the schema's 'when to use' phrasing.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+method: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes from siblings by detailing the fill-check integration and referencing polymarket_fill_risk, making it unique among similar Polymarket tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit usage scenarios: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check', or 'topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It even recommends when to prefer one mode, and names an alternative tool ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk').

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have nearly identical or heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical, and the six Polymarket tools (arbitrage, edges, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread, bet_research) all involve finding/analyzing prediction-market opportunities. deep_research and ask_pipeworx also overlap as general query routers, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence is another confusable pair.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case and are descriptive, but verb placement is inconsistent: some are verb-first (check_domain, compare_entities, resolve_entity), others are verb-last or noun-like (ai_visibility_check, entity_profile, pipeworx_trending, bet_research). There is no chaotic camelCase mix, but the pattern is not predictable enough to guess a tool's behavior from its name.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is far above the typical well-scoped range and the set spans multiple unrelated domains (data lookup, prediction markets, AI visibility, memory, subscriptions, email/domain validation) that have no cohesive purpose under the 'disify' name. Most tools are not related to domain or email checking, making the count feel like a grab bag rather than a focused toolkit.

Completeness2/5

For a server named 'disify', the core domain-validation surface is minimal (only check_domain and validate_email) and misses obvious operations like WHOIS lookup or breach/debounce checks. As a general data toolset it is broad but shallow in each area, with gaps such as entity_profile only supporting US public companies and no update/delete operations for most data resources.