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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive. Description adds significant context: scanning logic, partition filter, semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), fill check with book depth, and trade advisories. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured and front-loaded with core purpose and modes. However, the description is lengthy with detailed sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) that, while valuable, could be slightly more concise.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, fill check, output structure), the description is complete. It covers scanning logic, mode selection, output fields, fill check instructions, and references a sibling tool (polymarket_fill_risk) for custom sizing. No output schema, but response structure is described.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The description adds meaning: explains event is for specific market with slug examples, topic for cross-event scanning with seed question examples, and clarifies the purpose and behavior of each mode beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies the verb (find), resource (arbitrage opportunities), and methodology, distinguishing it from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides detailed guidance on when to use no args (trending_scan), event mode (specific market), and topic mode (cross-event scanning). Explains recommendations and limitations. However, it does not explicitly contrast with sibling tools or state when not to use this tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several clusters overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all serve question-answering/research, and the six polymarket_* tools cover closely related prediction-market analysis. Long descriptions help differentiate them, but an agent could easily pick the wrong near-duplicate.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and readable, but there is no consistent verb_noun pattern: some are verbs (search_pairs, validate_claim), some noun phrases (latest_token_profiles, entity_profile), and some prefixes (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*) cover only subsets. The naming is understandable but stylistically mixed.

Tool Count2/5

37 tools is far too many for a server labeled Dexscreener, especially since the majority of tools have nothing to do with DEX data. Even if this is intended as an all-in-one data/research server, the count exceeds what the apparent scope justifies and many tools feel bolted on.

Completeness4/5

For the DEX Screener domain, the core surface is covered: pair lookup, token lookup, search, latest profiles, and boosts. The broader Pipeworx/prediction-market side also has strong coverage with memory, subscriptions, entity resolution, and research tools. Minor gaps exist — some tools feel redundant or exploratory — but there are no critical dead-end workflows.