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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description is unusually transparent: it explains that spread_pp is gross, does not model Kalshi's fees, that unknown legs are never paired, that null temporal_alignment means unknown rather than aligned, and that compatibility codes can be present on successful responses. It also defines machine-readable code meanings and the skipped-cross counters. This far exceeds what the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but deliberately structured around modes, response, safety fields, skipped counters, and fee caveats, with the core purpose front-loaded. Some repetition exists — for example, the same compatibility codes are listed both as safety fields and as per-entry flags — but each repeated concept is central to correct interpretation. It is dense rather than padded.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema and a deceptively simple 3-optional-parameter input, the description carries a heavy burden and meets it. It specifies what the response contains (leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, fees_note, temporal_alignment), which failure modes exist, what null means, and how to interpret warnings. An agent can invoke this correctly without additional documentation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already documents all three parameters, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaning beyond the schema by explaining the override relationship between explicit ticker/slug values and topic-mapped sides, and by stating both modes produce the same disclosures. It maps the parameter choices to exactly two behavioral modes.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence names a specific resource and action: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It clearly contrasts across-venue pricing differences and says when bet shapes aren't equivalent the tool calls that out. It doesn't explicitly name a sibling to distinguish from, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit mode selection: the `topic` shortcuts auto-fetch events, while explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` allow custom pairings, and both modes run the same matcher. It also gives strong operational guidance: pre-mapped topics are often not tradeable and compatibility warnings must be read even when pairs exist. It stops short of naming alternative sibling tools, so a 4 rather than 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping functionality, such as ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded, which are essentially the same with minor differences. The polymarket_* family also has five tools with similar names and purposes, making it easy to select the wrong one despite detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names mix verb-first patterns (ask, generate, list, remember) with noun-first patterns (entity_profile, polymarket_arbitrage), and include camelCase like ai_visibility_check. This inconsistent naming style makes the set feel arbitrary and harder to navigate.

Tool Count3/5

With 36 tools, the server exceeds the typical well-scoped range of 3-15. While the multi-purpose nature justifies a larger set, the presence of many near-duplicates (beta/grounded variants, multiple polymarket tools) inflates the count without proportional functional gain.

Completeness4/5

The toolset covers a wide array of domains including translation, entity resolution, financial data, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, and AI visibility. It appears very comprehensive for its intended multi-purpose server, with no obvious major gaps in core capabilities.