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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already carry readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint, so the bar is lower, but the description adds extensive behavior beyond them: compatibility codes and their semantics, temporal_alignment null handling, unknown legs never being paired, fees not being modeled, and skipped-cross counters. This is exemplary transparency for a comparison tool with no output schema.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the core purpose and uses clearly labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS), which keeps a long definition navigable. It is denser than strictly necessary, but nearly every sentence adds operational value, so it earns a high rather than mediocre score.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema and a complex comparison tool, the description carries the full burden of explaining return fields, safety flags, failure modes, and fee caveats. It covers all relevant edge cases: compatibility codes, per-entry flags, unclassified legs, temporal alignment semantics, and gross-vs-net spread, leaving little for an agent to guess.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description significantly enriches parameter meaning: it explains that explicit ticker/slug overrides the topic-mapped side, that both modes use an identical token-overlap matcher, and that the same disclosures apply to both. It also gives the exact shortcut list and clarifies how the mode choice affects returned data.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific operation and resource: it computes the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It clearly explains two modes (topic shortcuts vs explicit ticker/slug), but it does not explicitly contrast itself with sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so it misses the sibling-differentiation top tier.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides strong usage context: when to use topic mode versus explicit mode, and it warns that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility_warning rather than tradeable spreads. It does not name alternatives among siblings or state when to prefer a different tool, so it stops short of full exclusionary guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are functionally identical (beta just has experimental routing), and the Polymarket suite (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) all revolve around prediction-market signal detection with unclear boundaries. Also ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap heavily.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is a mix of verb-first (draw_cards, resolve_entity, discover_tools) and noun-first (entity_profile, new_deck, recent_alerts) styles, with inconsistent prefixes (pipeworx_feedback vs ask_pipeworx) and no unifying convention. Some tools are bare verbs (recall, remember), others are noun phrases (polymarket_edges).

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is excessive for a server named 'deckofcards' — only 3 tools relate to cards. Even as a general-purpose data/research server, 34 is on the high end and includes many near-duplicates (ask_pipeworx variants) and highly specialized tools that could be consolidated.

Completeness3/5

The research side is fairly complete (lookup, grounding, comparison, profiles, claim verification, memory, subscriptions), but the card-deck functionality is minimal (only create, draw, shuffle) and lacks any deck inspection or hand management. The server's scope is unclear, making it hard to assess true coverage.