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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint false. The description adds significant behavioral context: fill check against live CLOB depth, semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity threshold, partition filter with placeholder fraction, and detailed response structure. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with paragraphs and bolded key terms. Every sentence adds value; however, slight redundancy in explaining the same concepts (e.g., partition_check definition) could be trimmed. Still, it remains clear and informative.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, semantic filtering, fill check) and no output schema, the description fully explains the response structure (opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, etc.) and partition_check details. It covers all necessary aspects for correct invocation and interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the description adds meaning beyond parameter names: explains what an event slug is with examples ('fed-decision-may-2026'), describes topic as a seed question, and clarifies full Polymarket URLs are accepted. The description fully compensates for any schema limitations.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket using monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes: trending scan (no args), event mode (specific slug), and topic mode (cross-event). It also differentiates from sibling polymarket_fill_risk by mentioning its use for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. Also warns not to trade when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 and refers to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Multiple tools answer factual questions (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim, deep_research), and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to the stable router right now, creating genuine selection ambiguity. Most other clusters—memory, subscriptions, entity research, Polymarket—are reasonably distinct once the verbose descriptions are read.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are consistently lowercase snake_case with recognizable family prefixes (ask_pipeworx_*, data360_*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*), which aids grouping. The convention mixes verb-first names like resolve_entity with noun/prefix names like polymarket_edges, but it is still readable and predictable enough.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the heavy range, and the server bundles several unrelated concerns—universal data routing, prediction-market analytics, memory, subscriptions, AI-visibility marketing, and npm dependency scanning—into one surface. Many tools earn their place, but the aggregate is overloaded and likely to slow tool-selection.

Completeness4/5

The data-research side has strong coverage: discovery, universal routing, grounded verification, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, recent-changes tracking, and in-record search. Subscription lifecycle and memory are complete, and the prediction-market suite even covers fill-risk and edge persistence; only a few niche read/write operations are absent.

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