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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond annotations, the description discloses fill-check behavior (realizable_edge_pp <= 0 means don't trade), partition-filter placeholder logic, and semantic-anchor Jaccard similarity, giving critical behavioral context for evaluating results. It also describes response structures and limitations (skipped_low_similarity, placeholders_filtered).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and every section adds value, but it's a long unbroken text block that could benefit from bullet points. It front-loads the core function but is exhaustive, which is justified for a complex tool with multiple modes.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully documents the response shape (opportunities[], partition_check{...}, fill_check details) and references related tool for sizing, making it complete and actionable for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema covers both params, the description enriches meaning: explains 'event' accepts slugs or full URLs, describes partition_check output, and contrasts event vs topic modes. This goes far beyond the schema's short descriptions and clarifies the distinction between the two optional arguments.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks,' providing a specific verb, resource, and methodology. It clearly distinguishes this tool from siblings like polymarket_edges by detailing its unique modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and how they differ.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It explicitly tells when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for... or topic for...' and 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' It also notes when topic is preferable over event for cross-event patterns, and even differentiates from the fill_risk sibling.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters are near-duplicates or easy to confuse: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are nearly identical (beta currently matches stable exactly), while polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and bet_research all scan prediction-market opportunities with overlapping outputs. entity_profile/compare_entities/recent_changes and ai_visibility_check/scan_competitor_ai_presence add further redundancy. Despite detailed descriptions, the boundaries require careful reading, so an agent is likely to misselect.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and readable, with useful prefixes like ask_, polymarket_, pipeworx_, and scan_. However, conventions are mixed: verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity) coexists with bare nouns (datasets, metadata, query) and noun-first compounds (entity_profile, bet_research, deep_research). There is no single predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is above the 25-tool threshold, and the set spans multiple unrelated domains such as data routing, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, Virginia Open Data, AI visibility, and npm dependency checks. Several tools are effectively wrappers or near-overlaps that could be consolidated, e.g., ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage. The surface feels bloated for a single server.

Completeness4/5

Within its main sub-domains the set is solid: memory has remember/recall/forget, subscriptions have subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts, research has resolve_entity/compare_entities/entity_profile/recent_changes/validate_claim, and Polymarket has detection/arbitrage/fill-risk/edge-tracking. Minor gaps exist — no tool to fetch a raw pipeworx:// record, no write/update for Virginia Open Data, and no trade execution for prediction markets — but these do not create dead ends for a research-focused agent.

Resources