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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, idempotent, open-world, and non-destructive hints. The description adds extensive behavioral details: walks child markets, checks order and partition sums, performs fill checks against live order book, filters partitions with placeholders, and uses semantic similarity to prevent mismatches. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but front-loaded with the core purpose and modes. While thorough, it could benefit from clearer section breaks or bullet points to improve readability. However, every sentence adds value and avoids redundancy.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description details the response structure (opportunities array, partition_check object, fill_check fields) and references related tools. For a complex tool with no output schema, it is remarkably complete, covering behavior, constraints, and edge cases.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the description adds significant meaning: explains what event slugs look like, that full URLs work, what topic strings are used for, and how the behavior differs between parameters. It provides examples and clarifies internal logic like semantic anchor and partition filter.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) with explicit details.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each parameter: no args for trending scan, event for a specific market slug, topic for cross-event scanning. It also mentions an alternative (polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing) and conditions like when not to trade.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes, particularly the ask_pipeworx variants (standard, beta, grounded) and the Polymarket analysis tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage). While descriptions help differentiate, an agent may still select the wrong tool for a given task.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names mix verb-initial (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities) and noun-initial (dataset_info, pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_arbitrage) patterns. The snake_case convention is consistent, but the lack of a uniform verb_noun pattern reduces predictability.

Tool Count3/5

With 34 tools, the server is overloaded relative to a clear scope. Many tools are meta-tools (memory, subscription management, feedback) that inflate the count. A more focused set of 15-20 tools would be more coherent.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface covers a wide range of domains: structured data queries, entity profiles, comparisons, prediction market analysis, memory, subscriptions, and SNCF-specific data. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no dedicated weather or sports tools), but the universal ask_pipeworx compensates. Overall, users can accomplish most tasks without dead ends.