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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark it as read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive. Description adds extensive behavioral details: fan-out logic, resolver contract, parent_event extractor, news fallback, safety checks for low-confidence, closed markets, wide spreads, and cancellation rules. Far exceeds annotation burden.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is very long and dense with detailed sections. While well-organized with all-caps section markers and clear labeling, it could be pruned for an agent. However, every sentence appears to earn its place given the complexity of the tool.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple categories, response shapes, edge cases), the description is extremely complete. Covers resolver confidence, parent events, news fallback, safety mechanisms, cancellation rules, and more. No output schema, so description carries full burden.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for all 3 parameters. Description adds substantial context: explains market parameter accepts slug/URL/text, depth has quick/thorough with defaults, and include_raw explains when to use true vs false. Clearly adds value beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states it researches Polymarket bets by pulling Pipeworx data in one call. Accepts slug, URL, or question text. Returns evidence packet and market-vs-model comparison.Distinguishes itself among many siblings by being the dedicated bet research tool.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly lists use cases like 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', 'is there edge in Z'. Provides extensive examples of fan-out per category and when certain fields are relevant. No explicit when-not, but the guidance is thorough.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but several clusters overlap: ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_beta are currently functionally identical, polymarket_arbitrage / polymarket_edges / polymarket_kalshi_spread all hunt mispricings via different mechanisms, ai_visibility_check is wrapped by scan_competitor_ai_presence, and discover_tools vs suggest_questions both serve tool discovery. The rich descriptions mitigate but do not eliminate misselection risk.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are all snake_case and follow recognizable conventions: verb_noun for actions (compare_entities, resolve_entity, validate_claim), domain-prefixed families (polymarket_*, pipeworx_*, recent_*, ask_pipeworx_*), and a few bare verbs (remember, recall, query). Minor deviations like bet_research (noun_verb) and noun-only names (datasets, metadata) break the pattern, but the overall scheme is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

At 34 tools, this exceeds the 25+ threshold for 'too many' and bundles several distinct domains — general data querying, prediction markets, AI visibility, memory, subscriptions, open data, and npm auditing — into one server. The breadth is defensible for a data platform, but the agent-facing surface is sprawling and would benefit from splitting into focused servers.

Completeness4/5

The core data workflow is well covered: discover (discover_tools, suggest_questions), resolve (resolve_entity), query (ask_pipeworx), ground (ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim), research (deep_research), compare (compare_entities), profile (entity_profile), and changes (recent_changes). Prediction markets, memory, and subscriptions each have full lifecycles. The main gap is no tool for fetching returned pipeworx:// citation URIs directly, plus a few soft-failing sources.