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Data Nola

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate a safe read-only operation. The description adds extensive behavioral context: fan-out logic by classifier, resolver contract with confidence levels, parent event extraction, news fallback mechanism (GDELT 429s, GNews backfill), safety short-circuits, tradeability warnings, and resolution-rule parsing. It even describes practical behavior like de-indexed markets surfacing via low-confidence path.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is very long (700+ words) and dense with information. While front-loaded with a clear summary, the lack of structural headings (e.g., paragraphs for sections) and excessive detail make it less concise. However, the complexity of the tool justifies the length, and each detail serves a purpose for agent decision-making.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (3 parameters, no output schema, rich behavioral logic), the description is exceptionally complete. It covers input interpretation, classification, fan-out, response shapes, resolver contract, parent events, news fields, safety, tradeability, and resolution-rule risk. No significant gaps remain for an agent to use the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, providing baseline clarity. The description adds value beyond schema: it clarifies that 'market' accepts slug, URL, or text (already in schema but reinforced), explains 'depth' enum ('quick = 2-3 sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough'), and provides guidance on 'include_raw' (summarized vs full payloads, size implications, use cases). This goes beyond bare schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies multiple input formats (slug, URL, question text) and the output (evidence packet + market-vs-model comparison). This distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges by being the primary research tool for betting queries.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states when to use: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' Provides detailed guidance on inspecting market_match_confidence, handling low-confidence matches, closed markets, wide spreads, and resolution-rule risk. Includes practical notes on when results are blocking (low_confidence_match, market_closed_or_inactive).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool boundaries blur: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all serve overlapping query/research entry points, and ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to ask_pipeworx by the server's own description. entity_profile, recent_changes, and compare_entities also cover overlapping company-investigation territory, forcing agents to parse long descriptions to avoid mis-selection.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are uniformly snake_case and mostly follow a predictable verb-object or domain-prefix pattern (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, nola_*, subscribe/unsubscribe). Minor deviations like nola_datasets, polymarket_edges, and ai_visibility_check are noun-first rather than verb-first, but the overall convention is still readable and coherent.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the 15-25 heavy range and includes multiple near-duplicate query modes, four closely related Polymarket analysis tools, and memory/subscription utilities layered on top of the core data-access surface. While the server appears to be a broad data platform, the count is bloated for an agent to navigate efficiently.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface is remarkably broad: discovery, single-answer lookup, grounded verification, deep research, entity resolution, entity profiles, comparisons, claim validation, NOLA querying, prediction-market analytics, memory, subscriptions, and feedback are all covered with few obvious dead ends. The main gap is that the NOLA-specific surface is thin relative to the server name, though nola_query plus nola_datasets provides a flexible escape hatch.

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