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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint). It discloses internal algorithms (monotonicity, partition-sum, semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity, partition filter for placeholders, fill check against live depth). It also describes the response structure and when to use polymarket_fill_risk. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is quite long but well-organized with section headings (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and clear separation of modes. Every sentence adds value, but it could be slightly more concise without losing essential detail. Still, the structure aids readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, algorithmic details, no output schema), the description is remarkably complete. It explains the scanning algorithm, the partition check threshold, the similarity filter, placeholder handling, fill check for tradability, and references a related tool for custom sizing. No gaps remain.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with both parameters described, but the description adds substantial semantics: it explains the behavior of each parameter, provides example values, and details the difference between event and topic modes. This adds meaning beyond the schema's brief descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It clearly distinguishes between the two modes (event and topic) and the no-arg default. The verb 'find' and resource 'arbitrage opportunities' are specific and distinct from sibling tools like 'polymarket_edges' or 'polymarket_fill_risk'.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, 'event' for a specific market (recommended), and 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It gives concrete examples of slugs and seed questions. It also warns when not to trade via the fill check section, telling agents to avoid trades with realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool families have unclear boundaries: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-duplicates (the beta is currently identical), and the six polymarket_* tools plus bet_research heavily overlap in prediction-market analysis. ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence also serve the same core function. An agent would frequently need to read lengthy descriptions to pick the right one, and could easily misselect.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools follow a readable snake_case pattern, but the style is mixed: some are verb-first (ask_pipeworx, search_datasets, resolve_entity), some are domain-prefixed nouns (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_feedback), and a few are bare nouns or adjective-noun phrases (dataset, entity_profile, recent_alerts). It is not chaotic, but there is no single predictable verb_noun convention across the set.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, this is above the 25+ threshold considered too many for a coherent toolset. The count is inflated by near-duplicate families (three ask_pipeworx variants, six polymarket tools) that could reasonably be consolidated. While the server covers a broad domain, the number of top-level choices creates unnecessary selection burden for agents.

Completeness4/5

For a read-focused data/research gateway, the surface is quite complete: general lookup, grounded verification, deep research, entity resolution, comparisons, change tracking, memory, subscriptions, and feedback are all present. Minor gaps exist, such as no direct fetch-by-URI tool for the pipeworx:// citations that other tools return, and the Dutch open-data tools are strictly read-only. These are workarounds rather than dead ends.

Resources