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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint=False. The description adds significant behavioral context: it explains how fill check works against live CLOB depth, warns that realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means no trade, and describes filters like partition filter and semantic anchor. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense with information but slightly verbose in places. However, every sentence adds value; no wasted words. Could be better structured with bullet points, but still clear and effective.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response fields (opportunities[], partition_check details, fill check results). It covers both modes, filter logic, and edge cases (like placeholder slugs, low similarity). Very complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with both parameters described. The description adds substantial meaning beyond the schema: it explains what event slugs look like, how topic works, and provides context on when to use each parameter. This adds high value.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_edge_tracker by specifying its unique method and modes (trending_scan, event, topic).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly explains when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It recommends event for specific markets and explains cross-event catches patterns single-event misses. Lacks explicit 'when not to use' statements but overall provides strong guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tool pairs have blurred boundaries: 'ask_pipeworx', 'ask_pipeworx_beta', and 'ask_pipeworx_grounded' serve overlapping routing purposes with minor differences in grounding or versioning, which can confuse an agent. Similarly, 'pipeworx_feedback' and the user feedback mechanism inside other tools lack clear tool-level distinction. Most other tools are distinct but the cluster of ask_pipeworx variants lowers overall clarity.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names largely follow a consistent verb_noun or prefix_noun pattern (e.g., ask_pipeworx, resolve_entity, scan_dependency). Some names like 'bet_research' and 'datasets' deviate from this pattern but remain readable. No chaotic mixing of conventions like camelCase and snake_case is present, so consistency is high overall.

Tool Count3/5

With 34 tools, the count is on the higher side for a single server, yet the tool set covers a broad domain of data access, analysis, and monitoring (data pipelines, prediction markets, compliance scans). Given the variety of distinct capabilities offered, 34 is borderline but not excessive enough to drop to a 2, as each tool addresses a concrete need.

Completeness5/5

The tool set offers a remarkably complete lifecycle for data operations: discovery (suggest_questions, discover_tools, datasets), entity resolution (resolve_entity, metadata), querying and retrieval (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, query), analysis and comparison (compare_entities, entity_profile, validate_claim), memory (remember, recall, forget), monitoring (subscribe, recent_alerts, polymarket_edge_tracker), and feedback (pipeworx_feedback). Niche tools like bet_research, scan_dependency, and generate_llms_txt further fill domain-specific gaps. No obvious missing operations for the stated purpose.

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