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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false. Description adds rich behavioral context: scans top ~200 markets, performs date-axis/threshold-axis ordering, partition-sum checks, Jaccard similarity filter, placeholder filtering, and fill check using CLOB depth. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is well-structured and front-loaded with purpose, but is lengthy due to detailed technical explanations. Every sentence earns its place, but could be slightly more concise. Still, the structure is logical and easy to follow.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, description thoroughly explains return values (opportunities array with fields, partition_check object). Covers all aspects: mode differences, filtering criteria, fill check, and cross-event similarity. Complete guidance for an AI agent to select and invoke correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema has 100% coverage with descriptions for both 'event' and 'topic'. Description greatly expands on each: provides examples of slugs, explains how each mode works internally (e.g., walks child markets, cross-event union), and adds critical details like semantic anchor and partition filter. Adds significant value beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description explicitly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks', specifies three distinct modes (trending_scan, event, topic), and distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk. The verb-resource combination is clear and the tool's purpose is well-defined.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance: call with no arguments for trending_scan, use 'event' for specific markets, use 'topic' for cross-event scanning. Warns against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 and directs to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. All usage scenarios are clearly described.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Tools are generally distinct in purpose, but the server name 'Maryland Open Data' conflicts with the inclusion of many unrelated Pipeworx tools (e.g., prediction market tools). This creates ambiguity about the server's actual domain, making it hard for agents to know what to expect.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are mixed: some tools use snake_case (ai_visibility_check), others are plain (datasets, query), and some are descriptive phrases (ask_pipeworx_grounded). No consistent verb_noun pattern emerges, leading to a chaotic feel.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is high, and the majority are unrelated to Maryland Open Data, suggesting scope creep. The server tries to be a general-purpose data platform but is named after a specific dataset, making the count feel excessive and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The Maryland Open Data subset is minimal (3 tools: datasets, metadata, query), lacking update/delete/CRUD operations. The broader set includes many query and analysis tools, but the server's stated purpose is not fully covered.