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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint), the description details behavioral traits: the scan logic (monotonicity, partition checks, semantic anchor, partition filter), the fill check against live CLOB depth, and the conditions under which signals should not be acted upon. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

While the description is lengthy, every section is justified by the tool's complexity. It is well-structured with clear separation of modes, filters, and fill checks. Minor redundancy could be trimmed, but overall it is informative and front-loaded with the core purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the lack of output schema, the description compensates by detailing the response structure (opportunities array, partition_check fields). It covers all modes, edge cases (semantic anchor, placeholder filter, fill check), and provides enough detail for correct invocation and interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The tool description adds significant value by explaining that `event` selects single-event mode with slug/URL examples, `topic` enables cross-event scanning with seed question examples, and elaborates on their respective behaviors.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The tool's purpose is explicitly stated: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk by specifying its unique methodology and modes of operation.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides comprehensive usage guidance: when to call with no arguments (trending scan), with `event` (single-event mode with specific slug examples), and with `topic` (cross-event scanning). It explains why cross-event mode is beneficial and warns when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0). It also references a sibling tool for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool targets a distinct purpose: data lookup (ask_pipeworx vs deep_research), entity profiles, comparisons, memory, monitoring, and prediction market analysis. Overlaps are minimal and mitigated by explicit usage guidance (e.g., ask_pipeworx vs. ask_pipeworx_grounded vs. deep_research).

Naming Consistency5/5

All tools use descriptive snake_case names following a verb_noun or verb_preposition pattern (e.g., entity_profile, resolve_entity, scan_dependency). The naming is predictable and internally consistent, making it easy for an agent to infer tool purposes.

Tool Count3/5

33 tools is on the high end for typical MCP servers. However, the server covers an exceptionally broad domain (structured data across SEC, FDA, FRED, weather, news, crypto, etc.) and includes meta-tools, monitoring, and memory. The count is justified but may feel excessive for many use cases.

Completeness5/5

The tool surface covers the full lifecycle of data access and analysis: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), retrieval (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile), comparison, claim validation, monitoring, memory, and feedback. There are no obvious gaps for the declared domain, and a feedback tool is provided for missing functionality.

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