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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond annotations (readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, not destructive), the description details the algorithm (monotonicity checks, partition sum check), semantic anchor for cross-event, partition filter for placeholders, fill check with CLOB depth, and edge conditions. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) that aid readability. It front-loads the core purpose and then provides necessary details. Could be slightly more concise but remains effective.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema and the tool's complexity (multiple modes, fill check, filters), the description is remarkably complete. It explains return fields, trade signals, and links to related tools. The fill check details prevent erroneous trades, enhancing completeness.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but the description adds value by explaining the recommended use for each parameter, providing example values, and describing behavior when no args are passed. This goes beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) with specific use cases, making it distinct from sibling tools like polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each parameter: event recommended for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning, and no args for trending scan. It also advises against trading when fill check shows non-realizable edge, and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes, e.g., ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all route queries to the same data sources with only subtle differences. Similarly, bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and polymarket_edge_tracker all analyze prediction markets, making it hard for an agent to pick the right one without deep reading of descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

Tool names follow a mix of patterns: some are verb_noun (generate_llms_txt, list_subscriptions), some noun_verb (ai_visibility_check, bet_research), and some are just nouns (datasets, metadata). The ask_pipeworx family has consistent prefixes but suffixes vary. Overall readable but inconsistent.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is excessive for a coherent server. The server tries to be a Swiss Army knife covering data lookup, prediction markets, Delaware open data, memory, subscriptions, and misc tools like generate_llms_txt and scan_dependency. Many tools feel tacked on, and the count makes it unwieldy for an agent to navigate.

Completeness3/5

The server covers multiple domains thoroughly (data query via Pipeworx variants, prediction markets with arbitrage and edges, Delaware open data, memory, subscriptions). However, there are gaps: no tool for managing custom pipelines or for updating data. For the broad scope, it is decent but not fully comprehensive.

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