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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, idempotent, open-world behavior, which the description matches. It adds extensive behavioral details: monotonicity checks, partition-sum checks, Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), placeholder filtering, fill check against live CLOB depth, and conditions under which to avoid trading. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections for each mode and key concepts (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It front-loads the main purpose and mode selection. Every sentence adds necessary detail for a complex arbitrage tool, making it efficient despite its length.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, multiple filters, output specification), the description covers all necessary aspects: inputs, processing logic, output format, and fill check details. It also directs the agent to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, ensuring completeness without needing an output schema.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but the description adds substantial meaning beyond the parameter descriptions. It explains how event and topic modes work, gives example inputs, describes algorithm steps (partition_check, cross-event scanning, similarity filters), and details the output structure. This greatly helps an agent select and invoke the tool correctly.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description starts with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks', providing a specific verb and resource. It clearly distinguishes the tool's purpose from siblings by mentioning polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, and explains the two modes (event and topic) in detail.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly tells when to use no args (trending scan), event mode (specific market), and topic mode (cross-event scanning). It also warns about fill check failures and recommends polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. However, it does not compare this tool to other Polymarket siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_kalshi_spread.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are nearly identical routers, and the five polymarket_* tools all perform prediction-market analysis. Even with detailed descriptions, an agent could easily select the wrong one, especially since the server name 'NYC Open Data' does not hint at this focus.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a consistent lowercase snake_case verb_noun pattern (e.g., list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt, resolve_entity) and families share prefixes like polymarket_ and pipeworx_. Minor deviations exist with one-word names like datasets, metadata, and forget, but overall the naming is readable and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is far too many for a server labeled 'NYC Open Data,' where only 3 tools (datasets, metadata, query) actually serve that purpose. The rest form a general-purpose data platform, but even then the count is high and includes many redundant meta-tools and overlapping Polymarket utilities, making the set feel bloated.

Completeness3/5

For the NYC Open Data domain, the three dedicated tools cover search, metadata, and query—adequate core functionality but missing export or dataset management capabilities. For the broader Pipeworx platform, coverage is strong (routing, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, subscriptions, memory), but the severe mismatch between the server name and actual scope leaves a major completeness gap.