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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, open-world, idempotent, non-destructive. The description adds extensive behavioral context: internal logic (Jaccard similarity, partition filter, placeholder detection), fill check mechanics, and edge cases. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence adds value, though some details could be more terse. Well front-loaded with purpose and usage.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, intricate checks) and lack of output schema, the description thoroughly covers expected outputs (opportunities array, fill check details) and operational constraints, providing a complete picture for the agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters are documented in the schema (100% coverage). The description adds meaning beyond the schema by explaining what constitutes a valid event slug vs topic seed question, providing concrete examples, and clarifying the no-args default behavior.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between three modes: no args (trending scan), event (single event), and topic (cross-event), each with a specific verb and resource, differentiating it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly guides when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for... or topic for...'. It explains cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses, and provides a fill check warning not to trade if realizable edge <= 0, offering clear decision criteria.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx_beta deliberately matches ask_pipeworx exactly right now, discover_tools and suggest_questions both serve as what-can-I-do entry points, and ai_visibility_check is just the single-entity version of scan_competitor_ai_presence. An agent will struggle to pick the right variant without carefully reading long descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tools are snake_case and several families share clear prefixes (dart_*, polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx_*), but the overall set mixes verb_noun (discover_tools, validate_claim), noun_phrase (entity_profile, deep_research), bare verbs (remember, recall, forget), and prefix-noun (dart_financials). Readable but not unified.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is far above the 25+ heavy threshold, and the count is inflated by redundancy: ask_pipeworx_beta is a literal duplicate today, suggest_questions overlaps discover_tools, and ai_visibility_check is subsumed by scan_competitor_ai_presence. The broad Pipeworx platform justifies many tools, but the exposed surface is bloated.

Completeness4/5

The surface covers the apparent domain well: universal querying (ask_pipeworx family + deep_research), tool discovery, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, change feeds, claim verification, Korean DART filings, Polymarket analysis/fill-risk, memory, subscriptions, and feedback. Minor gaps remain—there's no explicit fetch-by-citation-URI tool despite claims those URIs are fetchable, and no way to retrieve full DART filing text beyond discovery.