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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, and destructiveHint=false. The description adds substantial behavioral context beyond annotations: partition check details, fill check with realizable edge, semantic anchor for cross-event, placeholder filtering, and response structure. It warns when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0). No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but well-organized: first sentence defines purpose, then modes, then technical details. Every sentence adds value. It could be slightly more concise (e.g., merging the fill check explanation), but structure is logical and front-loaded with key information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response (opportunities array with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, etc.) and the fill check behavior. It covers semantic anchors, partition filters, and placeholders. For a complex arbitrage tool, this is highly complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, baseline 3. The description adds significant meaning: explains event slug format and that full URLs are accepted, describes topic as a seed question, and details how each parameter changes tool behavior (scanning, filtering, output). This far exceeds the schema's minimal descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) with specific use cases, and the name 'polymarket_arbitrage' is descriptive. It differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explains when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It notes that cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses. While it doesn't explicitly list when not to use, the guidance is clear and includes an alternative (polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools overlap in purpose: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx today, and the polymarket_* family plus bet_research all touch prediction-market analysis. The descriptions are extremely detailed and mostly disambiguate, but an agent must rely on very long text to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are almost all snake_case and readable, but the pattern is mixed: some are verb-first (resolve_entity, list_subscriptions), some noun-first (entity_profile, polymarket_edges), and some are one-word verbs (remember, forget). The ask_pipeworx_* and recent_* prefixes are consistent, but there is no single verb_noun convention throughout.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is well over the 25+ threshold, especially for a server named 'Csv' that contains only two CSV-specific tools. The rest spans several unrelated domains: data research, prediction markets, subscriptions, memory, AI visibility, and package scanning. The set feels like multiple servers bundled together rather than one well-scoped surface.

Completeness4/5

As a broad data-research platform, coverage is strong: lookup, grounded answers, deep research, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, fact-checking, subscription lifecycle, and memory persistence are all present. Minor gaps exist, such as no direct fetch tool for pipeworx:// citation URIs and no subscription-update tool, but most workflows have no dead ends.

Resources