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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "event"
      +    ]
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "topic"
      +    ]
      +  }
      +]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. First observed

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description goes far beyond this by detailing thresholds (3pp partition deviation, ≥0.30 Jaccard), placeholder filtering rules, fill-check semantics, and the concrete return structure. This gives the agent rich behavioral context for safe invocation.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-organized into clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded with the core purpose and mode selection. Each sentence adds operational detail; while dense, it is structured for easy scanning. Not bloated given the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, so the description must explain return values; it does so explicitly (opportunities[], partition_check{...}, fill_check fields). It also covers edge cases (placeholder slugs, thin legs, realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0), making the tool's behavior fully contextualized for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful semantics: no-arg default behavior, recommended use of event for specific markets, and concrete examples for both event slugs and topic seed questions. These examples and mode explanations go beyond the schema without being redundant.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes the tool's scanning modes (no-args trending_scan, event, topic) and differentiates from siblings like polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance: call with NO args for trending scan, use event mode for a specific market, use topic for cross-event scanning. It also names an alternative tool for custom sizing ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk') and warns when not to trade ('realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 ... do not trade it').

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes: the four ask_pipeworx variants all route to the same 5,581 tools (ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to stable), and the six polymarket_* tools have subtle boundaries between research, edges, and arbitrage that could cause misselection. That said, the descriptions are unusually detailed, and non-overlapping clusters (CSO table tools, memory tools, subscription tools) are clearly distinct.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and mostly verb-first (get_dataset, resolve_entity, validate_claim), but conventions are inconsistent: polymarket_* and pipeworx_* are brand/noun-first while bet_research and ask_pipeworx put the verb first for the same domains, and some tools are pure nouns (entity_profile, recent_alerts). The pattern is readable but far from predictable.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools the server is well past the 25+ 'too many' threshold for a single MCP. Several tools don't earn their place: ask_pipeworx_beta is functionally identical to ask_pipeworx right now, and the six polymarket tools plus four ask_pipeworx variants represent heavy redundancy for what are essentially two sub-domains.

Completeness4/5

The data-access core is covered end to end: discovery (discover_tools, list_datasets, suggest_questions), structured reads (ask_pipeworx, get_dataset, query_dataset), grounded verification (validate_claim, ask_pipeworx_grounded), comparison (compare_entities), change tracking (recent_changes), plus memory and subscription CRUD. Minor gaps: subscriptions can't be edited (only recreated) and unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) dilute the focus rather than fill a real gap.