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Glama

Cso Ie

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false. The description goes far beyond this by detailing the resolver contract (market_match_confidence, market_match_score, alternatives), low-confidence matching behavior with status:"low_confidence_match", closed/dead market handling, wide-spread market tradeability flags, and resolution-rule risk (e.g., refund_50_50, resolves_no_on_cancel). This is exemplary behavioral transparency.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but appropriately structured with clear headers (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, RESOLVER CONTRACT, etc.) and front-loaded with the core purpose. Most sentences convey unique technical information that an agent would need, especially given the tool's complexity. It is not concise, but the density is warranted; however, it could be trimmed or organized more efficiently.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description comprehensively covers all aspects needed to use the tool correctly: what inputs are accepted, how fan-out works, what the response contains (result.market, result.analysis, result.evidence), how to handle match confidence, parent event extraction, news fallback fields, safety statuses for low-confidence and closed markets, and resolution-rule risk. With no output schema, this description carries the full burden and succeeds completely.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. The description adds value by explaining the impact of depth ('quick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out'), include_raw size implications (responses under ~20KB vs 50KB-500KB), and providing concrete examples for the market parameter (slug, URL, question text). This extra context justifies a score above baseline.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's function: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies the resource (Polymarket bet) and the action (research/pull data), and distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_arbitrage by focusing on a single bet's data fan-out rather than finding cross-market opportunities.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly lists use cases: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It also provides numerous fan-out examples for different bet categories. However, it does not explicitly state when not to use this tool or mention alternative sibling tools for specific situations, so it misses the 'when-not/alternatives' element of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes: the four ask_pipeworx variants all route to the same 5,581 tools (ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to stable), and the six polymarket_* tools have subtle boundaries between research, edges, and arbitrage that could cause misselection. That said, the descriptions are unusually detailed, and non-overlapping clusters (CSO table tools, memory tools, subscription tools) are clearly distinct.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and mostly verb-first (get_dataset, resolve_entity, validate_claim), but conventions are inconsistent: polymarket_* and pipeworx_* are brand/noun-first while bet_research and ask_pipeworx put the verb first for the same domains, and some tools are pure nouns (entity_profile, recent_alerts). The pattern is readable but far from predictable.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools the server is well past the 25+ 'too many' threshold for a single MCP. Several tools don't earn their place: ask_pipeworx_beta is functionally identical to ask_pipeworx right now, and the six polymarket tools plus four ask_pipeworx variants represent heavy redundancy for what are essentially two sub-domains.

Completeness4/5

The data-access core is covered end to end: discovery (discover_tools, list_datasets, suggest_questions), structured reads (ask_pipeworx, get_dataset, query_dataset), grounded verification (validate_claim, ask_pipeworx_grounded), comparison (compare_entities), change tracking (recent_changes), plus memory and subscription CRUD. Minor gaps: subscriptions can't be edited (only recreated) and unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) dilute the focus rather than fill a real gap.

Resources