Skip to main content
Glama

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / max_spread_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_liquidity
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_partition_leg_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  3. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / category_filter
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Comma-separated list to restrict the output: \"model_driven\" (crypto_price + news_momentum), \"structural_arbitrage\" (partition_overround), \"concentrated_longshot\". Combine like \"model_driven,structural_arbitrage\". Default: all.",
      +  "type": "string"
      +}
    • changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5)."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  4. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Discloses caching (1h at KV level), computation methods (lognormal barrier, GDELT), and limitations (Fed bets unreliable without paid data). Adds significant context beyond annotations (readOnly, idempotent). No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Dense but well-structured with sections like 'FIVE MODEL FAMILIES' and 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS'. Front-loads purpose. Every sentence adds value, though length could be slightly optimized for parsing.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, description details response structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics) and explains why segments may be empty. Covers all necessary context for agent to evaluate tool output.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, description adds further meaning: 'min_kelly' skips too-small bets, 'min_edge_pp' is net of slippage, 'slippage_pp' explains typical bid/ask costs. Provides actionable context beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' with specific verb and resource. It distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edge_tracker by detailing model families and structure.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly says 'Built for what should I bet on today' and explains tradeable-edge knobs. Provides when-to-use guidance for parameters like min_liquidity, max_spread_pp. Lacks explicit exclusions of alternatives but context is clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

Try in Browser

Glama MCP Gateway

Add one secure layer between your agents and this server.

TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tool families overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, its beta, and grounded variants, the six polymarket_* tools, and the three price endpoints (price, price_full, price_multi) can be confused despite distinct purposes. Long descriptions provide some disambiguation, but an agent must read carefully to select the correct tool.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names mostly follow snake_case with verb_noun or noun_noun patterns (all_coins, compare_entities, top_market_cap), and related families share clear prefixes (histo_*, polymarket_*). Minor deviations exist (bare verbs like remember/forget, brand names like ask_pipeworx), but the overall pattern is readable and consistent.

Tool Count2/5

With 46 tools, the server is far beyond the 3-15 well-scoped range and nearly double the 25-tool threshold for 'too many'. Many tools are unrelated to the server's apparent crypto purpose (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency, memory helpers), making it feel like a general-purpose utility rather than a focused data service.

Completeness3/5

The crypto data surface is fairly complete (spot, historical, top lists, news, social stats, exchange metadata), and the Pipeworx meta-tools (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, entity_profile) cover a broad range of factual queries. However, there are notable gaps: no direct way to fetch pipeworx:// citation URIs, and no advanced crypto order-book/trade endpoints, leaving some workflows as dead ends.