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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses rich behavioral detail: semantic anchor thresholds (≥0.30 Jaccard), partition placeholder filter (>20% placeholder => null arb), fill check logic (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means do not trade), and response structure. It complements the readOnlyHint and idempotentHint annotations without contradiction, adding significant context beyond the structured fields.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and front-loaded, with a clear purpose statement followed by labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It is long but every section adds critical usage detail. A small deduction for being somewhat verbose; it could be trimmed slightly without losing value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with two modes, multiple filters, and a fill-check remark, the description covers all necessary context: invocation modes, parameter semantics, output fields, edge cases, and caveats. It also references an alternative for custom sizing, making it self-contained enough for an agent to use correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema already provides 100% parameter coverage, the description adds substantial meaning with concrete examples ('event' slug vs 'topic' seed question), explains the mode-specific behavior of each parameter, and clarifies what happens when no args are supplied. This goes far beyond the schema's basic descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description begins with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes itself from sibling tools by naming its methodology and referencing polymarket_fill_risk for sizing, making it clear what this tool does and what it doesn't.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit usage guidance is provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It also tells when to prefer event vs topic and points to an alternative tool for custom sizing, satisfying both 'when to use' and 'when not to use'.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer factual questions with subtle differences that are not immediately clear. Additionally, five polymarket tools cover similar ground (arbitrage, edges, fill risk, spread), making it hard to pick the right one without reading the full descriptions.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names are consistently snake_case and mostly follow a verb_noun pattern (e.g., describe_cron, next_runs, validate_claim). Minor deviations exist (bet_research, entity_profile, pipeworx_trending) but the overall style is predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is well over the high end for a focused server, and the server name 'Crontab' implies a narrow cron utility while most tools are a broad data-research platform. This mismatch makes the count feel bloated and poorly scoped.

Completeness2/5

For a cron server, the set is severely incomplete: only describe_cron and next_runs exist, with no create/delete/update functionality. For the actual data-research domain, it is rich but lacks clear CRUD coverage for many resources, and the inclusion of unrelated cron/memory tools creates dead ends.

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