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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate safe read-only behavior, and the description adds extensive behavioral details: the semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against CLOB depth, and conditions for null signals. No contradictions with annotations; description significantly enriches agent understanding.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and no redundant information. Every sentence serves a purpose, though some minor trimming could improve conciseness without losing value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description fully specifies the response structure (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check details) and handles edge cases (skipped_low_similarity, placeholder fractions, null signals). It is complete for the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and description adds meaning beyond the schema: it clarifies that event accepts slugs or URLs, topic is a seed question for cross-event search, and explains the behavior of each mode. This provides semantic context absent from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly defines the tool as finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and explains each with specific use cases, making the purpose highly specific and distinguishable from sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for a specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It explains the advantage of cross-event mode over single-event and includes a fill check condition ('do not trade it' when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0), giving clear usage boundaries.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

The tool set includes several overlapping research/lookup tools (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, entity_profile) and multiple Polymarket tools, which could confuse an agent despite detailed descriptions. The boundaries between these tools are explained in the descriptions, but the sheer number of similar-purpose tools creates ambiguity.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a verb_noun pattern (e.g., search_crates, get_versions, validate_claim), but there are exceptions like entity_profile, deep_research, and bet_research, which break the pattern. The overall naming is readable and mostly consistent, with the polymarket_ and pipeworx_ prefixes providing grouping.

Tool Count2/5

With 35 tools, the server is far too heavy for a focused service. The server name 'Crates' suggests a narrow domain, but only 5 tools relate to Rust crates, while the rest cover disparate areas (Pipeworx, Polymarket, memory management). This mismatch and high count make the tool surface unwieldy.

Completeness4/5

For the underlying Pipeworx/Polymarket domain that the majority of tools serve, the coverage is strong: lookup, grounded answers, research, entity profiles, comparisons, changes, claim validation, scanning, memory, subscriptions, tool discovery. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no direct summarization), but the set feels well-rounded for a data analysis agent.

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