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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint=false. The description adds rich behavioral context: semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity >=0.30), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check (theoretical vs realizable edge), and output structure. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured, starting with the main purpose, then explaining each mode, and concluding with technical details. It is front-loaded with key information. However, it is somewhat lengthy and could be slightly more concise, especially the fill check section.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, multiple checks, no output schema), the description fully explains the response structure (opportunities[] and partition_check fields) and edge cases (fill check, placeholder filter, similarity threshold). It covers all necessary context for an agent to use the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. The description adds significant value by explaining the effect of no args, providing examples for event slugs and topic questions, and detailing the different behaviors for each mode (e.g., partition_check for event, cross-event scanning for topic).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks' and details both event and topic modes. This distinguishes the tool from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk, which focus on different aspects.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states when to use no args (trending_scan), event (single-event partition_check), or topic (cross-event scan). It recommends event for a specific market and explains that cross-event mode catches patterns missed by single-event mode. It also advises not to trade when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools overlap enough to cause misselection: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are functionally identical right now, ask_pipeworx_grounded and validate_claim both handle factual lookup/verification, and ai_visibility_check/scan_competitor_ai_presence are near duplicates in scope. The country/state/city tools are distinct but sit in a pile of unrelated Pipeworx tools, adding confusion.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lower_snake_case and families like polymarket_* and ask_pipeworx* help group tools, but the verb_noun convention is inconsistent: entity_profile, deep_research, recent_alerts, and pipeworx_trending are noun phrases, while remember/forget/subscribe are bare verbs. It is readable but not a predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is above the practical ceiling for a focused MCP server, and the mismatch is severe: only 3 tools match the 'Country State City' name while 31 belong to a broad Pipeworx platform. A geographic server would need roughly 3-6 focused tools; this surface is bloted.

Completeness2/5

For the stated Country State City domain, list_countries/get_states/get_cities provide the basic hierarchy, but there is no city search, country/state detail lookup, or attribute discovery beyond the three list endpoints, making the useful geographic surface thin. For the Pipeworx domain the coverage is broader, but that confirms the identity mismatch and obscures the server's actual purpose.