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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint) already indicate safety and non-destructiveness. The description adds rich behavioral details: it performs scans, checks monotonicity, computes partition sums, applies semantic similarity filters, filters placeholder slugs, and provides fill-check against live depth. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough and well-structured with clear sections for each mode, but it is somewhat lengthy. However, every sentence adds value, and key details are front-loaded. Minor reduction could improve conciseness without losing information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the complexity of the tool (optional params, no output schema, but detailed response fields), the description is complete. It enumerates return fields (opportunities array, partition check info, fill check results) and explains edge cases (placeholder filters, low similarity). No gaps.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the description significantly extends meaning for both parameters. For 'event', it provides slug examples and explains the partition check. For 'topic', it explains cross-event scanning and the semantic anchor constraint (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30). This goes well beyond the bare schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) with explicit examples, leaving no ambiguity about the tool's purpose and distinguishing it from siblings like 'polymarket_edges' or 'polymarket_fill_risk'.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: call with NO args for trending scan, pass 'event' for single-event analysis with partition checks, or 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It also warns against trading when fill check shows non-realizable edge, directing to 'polymarket_fill_risk' for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have overlapping jobs: ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded is the same router with stricter extraction, and discover_tools/suggest_questions both serve discovery. Company-facing tools also overlap (entity_profile vs recent_changes vs compare_entities), so an agent could easily route a query to the wrong tool despite detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are mostly snake_case and grouped prefixes like get_*, ask_pipeworx*, and polymarket_* are readable. However, conventions are mixed across the set: some are verb_noun (search_companies), some are noun phrases (entity_profile, deep_research, recent_changes), and the Companies House family sits awkwardly beside unrelated Pipeworx and prediction-market families.

Tool Count1/5

With 36 tools, the server is already heavy, but only five tools actually serve the named Companies House domain. The other 31 belong to Pipeworx querying, memory, subscriptions, and Polymarket trading, which is a severe mismatch between the server's stated purpose and its actual surface.

Completeness3/5

For UK company data, the core surface is mostly covered: search, company profile, filings, officers, and PSCs. However, charges and official document retrieval are missing even though get_company links to them, and the unrelated tools do nothing to complete the Companies House domain.

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