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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior, so the description's burden is to add operational context — and it does extensively: compatibility codes, skipped legs, temporal-alignment null semantics, fee disclosure, and gross-vs-net spreads. This directly supports the annotations without contradicting them.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is front-loaded with the core purpose and organized into labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, fees, skipped counters). Every sentence carries genuine operational content; the only deduction is that the density of codes, flags, and caveats makes it a heavy read despite the clear structure.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description must explain return semantics itself, and it does thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp with flags, skipped_unclassified, low_confidence_pairs, temporal_alignment, and fees_note. It even clarifies edge semantics like null meaning 'could not be computed' rather than aligned. Nothing needed to invoke the tool correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds substantial semantic weight: topic is a pre-mapped shortcut that auto-fetches matching events, explicit params override the mapped side, and both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. It also explains the meaning of the topic values and the override behavior beyond what the schema states.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description names a specific resource — the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question — and explains what the tool does with it: matches equivalent bet shapes and reports the price delta. It clearly differentiates from same-venue siblings like polymarket_arbitrage by emphasizing cross-venue comparison and same-question matching.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly frames TWO MODES and tells when to use pre-mapped topics versus explicit kalshi_event_ticker/polymarket_event_slug pairings. It also sets expectations with the warning that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility_warning and that 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' It stops short of a 5 because it never names a sibling tool as the alternative for other cases.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.2/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Tools have distinct purposes overall, but some pairs (e.g., ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_grounded, entity_profile vs recent_changes) could cause agent confusion without careful reading. Descriptions mitigate overlap, so only minor ambiguity.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools use snake_case with verb_noun or noun_verb patterns, but several single-word verbs (forget, recall, remember, subscribe) and a few inconsistent forms (czeonia, pribor) break uniformity. Still, the pattern is largely predictable.

Tool Count4/5

31 tools is high but justified for a multi-domain data gateway covering finance, economics, FDA, betting, and subscriptions. Each tool has a clear role, though the count pushes the upper bound for easy scanning.

Completeness5/5

The tool set comprehensively covers its stated domains: entity resolution, financial data, exchange rates, interest rates, SEC filings, FDA, Polymarket analysis, subscriptions, and utility memory. No obvious gaps given its purpose as a data retrieval and analysis server.