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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint as true. The description adds substantial behavioral context: it walks child markets, checks date-axis/threshold-axis ordering, computes partition_sum, uses Jaccard similarity (≥0.30), filters placeholder slugs, and includes a fill check via polymarket_fill_risk. No annotation contradiction; description enhances transparency.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but slightly verbose. It is front-loaded with the main purpose, and every sentence contributes meaningful information. However, it could be more structured with bullet points for readability. Still, the density of useful information justifies a high score.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, no output schema, and 27 sibling tools, the description is remarkably complete. It details all modes, algorithms, filters, and the fill check process. It even references another tool (polymarket_fill_risk) for custom sizing, covering edge cases thoroughly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds high value beyond schema: it explains the two parameters' purposes in detail, including examples, the difference between event and topic modes, and hints at response structure. This far exceeds baseline expectation.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket using monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies distinct modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and differentiates from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by detailing its unique algorithmic approach.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly guides when to use each parameter: no args for trending_scan, `event` for specific market (recommended), and `topic` for cross-event scanning. It provides concrete examples (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026', 'Fed rate decision') and explains when not to trade (when fill check shows realizable_edge ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Some tools have clearly distinct purposes (remember/recall/forget, subscribe/unsubscribe), but the ask_pipeworx family overlaps heavily — ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical today, and ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research are variations on the same routing core. Polymarket tools and comparison/profile tools also have fuzzy boundaries, though detailed descriptions help agents choose.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a lowercase snake_case verb_noun pattern (search_datasets, get_dataset, validate_claim, resolve_entity). A few deviate with bare verbs (remember, forget, recall) or noun-like names (dataset_info, entity_profile, pipeworx_trending), but the overall style is predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is a heavy surface for one server, and the scope sprawls across CMS open data, general data research, prediction markets, memory storage, and subscription management. Many of these could be split into separate coherent servers, and several meta-routers (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions) overlap in purpose.

Completeness4/5

Within the broad data-research domain the set is fairly complete: search, retrieval, grounding, comparison, entity resolution, verification, subscriptions, and memory are all covered with no obvious dead ends. However, the server is named 'Cms' yet only three tools actually touch CMS datasets, leaving that narrow purpose under-covered relative to the rest.

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